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Tryg: Scandinavia's Insurance Giant Born from Fire
I. Introduction & Episode Roadmap
Picture Copenhagen in late October 1728. A city of narrow medieval streets, timber-framed houses packed together like kindling, and a population still living much as their ancestors had for centuries. Then, on the evening of October 20th, a single flame escaped—perhaps from a candle maker's workshop, perhaps from an overturned lantern. What followed burned for three days straight, from October 20th until the morning of October 23rd, destroying approximately 28% of the city and leaving 20% of the population homeless.
No less than 47% of medieval Copenhagen was completely lost, along with the University of Copenhagen library's 35,000 texts, including irreplaceable works and Tycho Brahe's astronomical instruments atop Rundetårn. It was devastation on a scale that forced fundamental change—not just in architecture and urban planning, but in how Danes thought about risk itself.
The fire heightened public awareness of the need to insure oneself. Because of the massive destructions, Denmark's first fire insurance was established by Royal Decree. Kjøbenhavns Brand is the oldest part of Tryg's history.
That company, founded in 1731, would evolve over nearly three centuries through mergers, demutualizations, an IPO, and transformational acquisitions into what now stands as Scandinavia's largest non-life insurer: Tryg A/S. Tryg is the largest non-life insurer in Scandinavia with a top 4 market position across Denmark, Sweden and Norway, and has provided financial and personal security for Nordic customers for almost 300 years.
The name itself tells you everything you need to know about the company's mission. "Tryg is a unique Scandinavian word meaning to feel protected and cared for." This isn't merely marketing—it's the philosophical core of a company whose very existence was sparked by catastrophe.
This is the story of how an institution born from fire became the largest non-life insurer in the Nordics through a combination of patient consolidation, a unique ownership structure that rewards policyholders, and a transformational deal that stands as the largest capital markets transaction in Danish history. Along the way, we'll explore why the Nordic insurance market remains one of the most attractive and defensible in the world, and what investors should consider when evaluating Tryg's position today.
II. Origins: Fire, Fear & the Birth of Nordic Insurance (1728–1900)
To understand Tryg, you must first understand the Copenhagen fire—not just as a historical event, but as a crucible that forged Denmark's relationship with financial risk management.
The most infamous of the conflagrations, in 1728, brought on the greatest destruction. Starting on October 20th and burning for nearly three days, almost half of the medieval section of the city was destroyed. Copenhagen had been hit by a combination of strong winds, empty water conduits, drunken firefighters and narrow streets.
The aftermath was devastating, but Copenhagen refused to be paralyzed. The city had been mostly rebuilt by 1737, in under ten years. But mere reconstruction wasn't enough—the Danes resolved to prevent such catastrophic loss from ever occurring again.
The Copenhagen Fire of 1728 devoured around 28% of the buildings in Copenhagen. The merchants Hans Henrik Bech and Hans Hansen Berg proposed a fire insurance scheme and Kjøbenhavns Brandforsikring was founded by royal resolution on 26 January 1731. The fire insurance was instrumental in speeding up the rebuilding of the city since lending out money for construction projects became less risky.
This insight—that insurance reduces risk not just for individuals, but for entire economies—was revolutionary for its time. The first building was insured on 21 December 1731 by Otto Blome at Amagertorv 4. Kjøbenhavns Brandforsikring was the first fire insurance company, established in 1731, and is still around today as part of one of Scandinavia's leading insurance companies Tryg.
Throughout the 18th and 19th centuries, the Nordic insurance industry developed along mutual lines—cooperative societies where policyholders shared risk collectively. The company's evolution continued through the 19th and early 20th centuries, rooted in mutual societies that emphasized cooperative risk-sharing among members. In 1898, the name "Tryg" first appeared with the establishment of Livsforsikringsselskabet Tryg A/S, a life insurance firm. By 1911, a series of mergers among smaller mutual insurers formed Andels-Anstalten Tryg, a key non-life insurance entity.
The mutual model wasn't chosen arbitrarily—it reflected deeply held Nordic values around collective responsibility, trust in institutions, and social solidarity. Local special circumstances in the Nordics, such as the high level of trust in institutions and the social welfare systems, impact the insurance market. Customers in the region value security and reliability, which translates into a preference for insurance providers with a strong reputation and financial stability.
These cultural foundations would prove remarkably durable, surviving world wars, economic depressions, and eventual transformation into publicly traded entities—while still preserving the mutual heritage that makes Nordic insurers fundamentally different from their Anglo-American counterparts.
III. Building the Modern Tryg: Consolidation Era (1974–2005)
The 1974-1975 Mega-Merger
For decades, Denmark's insurance landscape had been fragmented—dozens of small mutual societies, each serving different regions, professions, or social classes. But by the early 1970s, competitive pressures and the economics of scale demanded consolidation.
Over the years 1974-1975 a group of smaller insurance companies—including Kjøbenhavns Brandforsikring and Andels-Anstalten Tryg—merge again. As a result, the mutual company Tryg Insurance emerges.
This merger reunited the two strands of Danish insurance history—the original fire insurance company born from Copenhagen's flames, and the cooperative tradition that had emerged a century later. The combined entity controlled a substantial share of the Danish non-life market and possessed the scale to invest in technology, distribution, and actuarial expertise.
Demutualization & TryghedsGruppen (1991)
The pivotal moment came in 1991 when Tryg made a decision that would define its character for the next three decades. The mutual Tryg Insurance demutualises and becomes a public limited company. New ownership is placed in 'Tryg i Danmark smba'—later known as 'TryghedsGruppen'.
Most demutualizations convert policyholders into shareholders through a one-time windfall, severing the link between insurance customers and company ownership. Tryg chose a different path—one that preserved the mutual heritage while enabling access to public capital markets.
The Group's membership structure stems from the conversion of Tryg Forsikring from a mutual company to a limited company in 1991, when TryghedsGruppen became the owner of Tryg and gained the Danish insurance customers as members.
This structure—a membership-based holding company serving as majority shareholder of a publicly traded insurer—was unusual but not accidental. It reflected a fundamental belief that insurance companies serve their customers best when ownership and policy-holding remain aligned.
Baltica Acquisition (1995)
In 1995, Tryg acquired the insurer Baltica, operating thereafter as Tryg-Baltica.
The Baltica deal established a template that Tryg would follow for the next three decades: acquire competitors, integrate their operations efficiently, and use scale advantages to reduce costs while maintaining underwriting discipline. The combined entity controlled approximately 21% of the Danish non-life market, solidifying its position as the dominant player.
Vesta Acquisition & Nordea Partnership (1999)
If 1995 planted the flag in Denmark, 1999 marked Tryg's emergence as a Nordic player. In 1999, Tryg-Baltica merged with the insurance operations of Unidanmark (part of the emerging Nordea Group) and acquired the Norwegian insurer Vesta, further expanding its presence in Denmark and Norway.
Tryg-Baltica merges with the second largest bank group in Denmark, Unidanmark (now Nordea Group). Tryg acquires the Norwegian insurance company Vesta the same year. Tryg-Baltica, Vesta and Unibank contributes to the formation of Nordea.
The Vesta acquisition was strategically significant—it gave Tryg a substantial presence in Norway, the oil-rich neighbor with strong GDP growth and high per-capita insurance spending. By this Tryg i Danmark smba holds a 6% share in the Nordic banking group.
TrygVesta Formation (2002)
In 2002, Tryg i Danmark smba, the parent of Tryg Forsikring, acquired Nordea's non-life insurance operations, combining them to form TrygVesta A/S. This merger also included the acquisition of Zurich's Danish and Norwegian non-life insurance activities, expanding TrygVesta's footprint across Scandinavia.
Tryg Forsikring A/S (Tryg) and the Norwegian sister company, Vesta Forsikring AS (Vesta), have reached an agreement with Zurich Financial Services Group (Zurich) to acquire a substantial part of Zurich's non-life lines of business in Denmark and Norway. Zurich will not write any further business from Denmark or Norway.
When a global giant like Zurich exits a market entirely, it signals something important about competitive dynamics. The Nordic market was becoming inhospitable to subscale foreign entrants—exactly the moat that Tryg was deliberately building.
IPO (2005)
TrygVesta is listed on the OMX Nordic Stock Exchange Copenhagen on the 14th October 2005. The opening share price is DKK 230. In December TrygVesta is a part of the OMXC20 index, comprising the 20 most traded shares on the OMX Nordic Stock Exchange Copenhagen.
Stine Bosse is appointed CEO of TrygVesta and launches an ambitious turnaround project under the headline Combined Ratio 95. The aim is to prepare Tryg for a listing within a few years.
The IPO wasn't just a capital-raising event—it was a strategic transformation. Public markets provided permanent access to equity capital for acquisitions while disciplining management through quarterly reporting and analyst scrutiny. Yet TryghedsGruppen retained majority control, ensuring that short-term market pressures wouldn't override long-term strategic thinking.
IV. TryghedsGruppen: The Unique Ownership DNA
Understanding Tryg without understanding TryghedsGruppen is like studying Berkshire Hathaway without considering Warren Buffett's investment philosophy. The ownership structure isn't just a governance detail—it's a competitive advantage that fundamentally shapes how Tryg operates.
The Structure
TryghedsGruppen is Tryg's majority shareholder with an ownership of 48.1% of the shares. Majority shareholder TryghedsGruppen smba owns 48.1% of Tryg's shares and is a company with limited liability. The purpose of the company is to own shares in companies that carry on insurance business or companies with operations creating peace of mind.
In addition to being the largest shareholder in Tryg, where TryghedsGruppen currently (December 2024) holds approximately 48% of the shares, it has investments in several investment funds and larger direct investments in the companies Falck and SATS. TryghedsGruppen is a member-based company with more than 1.5 million members dedicated to creating value and contributing to peace of mind in Danish society.
TryghedsGruppen's ownership of Tryg makes up 95% of the market value of TryghedsGruppen's assets.
The concentration is remarkable—TryghedsGruppen is essentially a vehicle whose sole purpose is to own Tryg stock. This creates an alignment between governance and ownership that is rare in publicly traded companies.
The Member Model
All Danish customers of the insurance company Tryg are automatically members of TryghedsGruppen, which is Tryg's largest shareholder and is responsible for funding TrygFonden. Every year, TryghedsGruppen supports projects promoting safety, health, and well-being in Danish society.
TryghedsGruppen has 1.5 million members, and all its members have the right to vote for the Board of Representatives, which is its governing body. The Board is composed of 70 members who decide on matters such as overall strategy, the financial framework for TrygFonden and major investments. All members are also eligible to receive a bonus if the Board of Representatives decides that TryghedsGruppen's financial result supports paying out a bonus.
The Member Bonus Scheme
The member bonus scheme of TryghedsGruppen, Tryg's majority stakeholder, is approved by the Danish Business Authority. The scheme allows TryghedsGruppen to pay out part of its profit to members (policyholders of Tryg Forsikring A/S in Denmark).
Since 2016, TryghedsGruppen has paid out DKK 7 billion in bonuses to its members.
Think about what this means: when you buy Tryg insurance in Denmark, you automatically become a member of the company's controlling shareholder, entitled to vote on governance matters and receive cash bonuses based on the group's performance. For the first time, TryghedsGruppen pays out a bonus of DKK 696 million to its members (Tryg's Danish customers). The bonus corresponds to 8% of the premium paid for 2015.
This creates customer stickiness that competitors simply cannot replicate. Switching to another insurer means forfeiting your TryghedsGruppen membership and any future bonuses. It's the insurance equivalent of airline frequent flyer programs, but with real financial consequences.
TrygFonden: Philanthropy as Strategy
Tryg i Danmark smba establishes the Danish foundation TrygFonden—a non-commercial organisation operating charitable projects across Denmark outside commercial interests.
In 2024, TryghedsGruppen spent approximately DKK 700 million on activities both through direct donations and partnerships with other philanthropic organisations and NGOs.
TrygFonden isn't charity for charity's sake—it's strategic brand-building that reinforces Tryg's mission of creating "peace of mind" in Danish society. TryghedsGruppen is the principal owner of the insurance company Tryg and is responsible for TrygFonden, which works as an independent non-profit unit. TrygFonden operates independently with public benefit to increase security in Denmark within the core areas of safety, health and welfare.
When a lifeguard tower appears on a Danish beach, branded with TrygFonden's logo, it simultaneously provides a public service and reinforces the Tryg brand's association with protection and security. It's advertising that creates genuine social value—a remarkably efficient form of marketing in the age of consumer skepticism.
The Berkshire Comparison
The TryghedsGruppen structure bears interesting parallels to Berkshire Hathaway's insurance operations. Both utilize insurance float—premiums collected before claims are paid—as a source of investable capital. Both prioritize underwriting discipline over premium growth. Both have patient ownership structures willing to accept short-term volatility for long-term value creation.
The current ownership model, with Tryg as a listed company and TryghedsGruppen as its main shareholder, is a strong model. It means that TryghedsGruppen's ownership is exercised in compliance with an arm's-length principle, respecting the exclusive right of Tryg's supervisory and Executive Boards to manage Tryg.
The key difference: while Berkshire's shareholders are passive investors, TryghedsGruppen's members are also customers, creating a direct feedback loop between ownership, governance, and commercial success.
V. Leadership Transitions & Strategic Pivots (2010–2018)
The Stine Bosse Era
2003 – 2011 Group CEO, Tryg Upon graduation, Bosse began working for TrygVesta, a Nordic insurance agency, rising up the ranks until she became an executive manager in 1999. In 2003 she was appointed CEO, and in 2009 the Financial Times identified her as "the 22nd most influential businesswoman in the world".
Stine Bosse spent nearly 24 years with Tryg, rising from the claims department to lead one of Scandinavia's largest financial institutions. 2008 Received the order Knight of Dannebrog. 2009 & 2010 Was appointed the 22nd most influential business woman in the world by the Financial Times.
Her leadership tenure coincided with the IPO, the brand simplification to "Tryg," and the establishment of TrygFonden as a major philanthropic force. More in general the average Combined ratio for the relevant period, 2004 to 2010 was 90.1% looking at reported numbers. Around 89.2% adjusting for the extraordinary weather-related claims in 2010. The average expense ratio in the period was 16.8% placing Tryg amongst the most efficient Nordics and European insurers.
The Morten HĂĽbbe Era Begins
After a period of 24 years with Tryg, Group CEO Stine Bosse resigns her post. The Supervisory Board appoints Morten HĂĽbbe as her successor. Morten HĂĽbbe has been with Tryg since 2002 and been CFO since 2003.
Morten HĂĽbbe is a Danish citizen born in 1972. He holds a Master's degree in Finance and Accounting from Copenhagen Business School. Morten HĂĽbbe was Group CEO of Tryg, Scandinavia's largest non-life insurer, from 2011 to 2023, and its Group CFO from 2002 to 2011. Prior to that, he worked at Zurich Insurance Group and Almindelig Brand Insurance in Denmark.
Morten HĂĽbbe became part of Tryg at the age of 30 and has since then had a successful career in the company; he held the position as Group CFO for 8 years until he was appointed Group CEO in 2011.
Hübbe's transition from CFO to CEO was seamless—he had already shaped Tryg's financial strategy and understood intimately what drove shareholder value.
Swedish Expansion via Moderna (2010)
The acquisition of the Swedish insurance company, Moderna Försäkringar, is completed on the 2nd April, making Moderna a part of TrygVesta. Moderna contributes with around 250 employees and a 4% share of the Swedish market to the Group.
Sweden represented an attractive adjacency: similar cultural values, strong economic growth, and an insurance market dominated by a few large players. Moderna gave Tryg a beachhead from which to expand.
Brand Simplification (2010)
In August, TrygVesta simplifies its name to Tryg. The change is the natural result of a stronger joint Nordic culture in the group and a close cooperation across borders. Due to the name similarity with RSA's Swedish operations Trygg-Hansa, Tryg keeps the name Moderna in Sweden.
The irony of keeping "Moderna" in Sweden to avoid confusion with Trygg-Hansa would take on new significance a decade later when Tryg acquired Trygg-Hansa itself, finally unifying the brands.
Focus on Profitability (2015-2016)
Focus on profitability: On June 1st, Tryg implements an organisational change that aims to guarantee a greater focus on profitability in the individual business areas. The new organisation has a simpler structure, with a clear allocation of roles and responsibilities and short decision-making processes.
A1 rating: Later that year Moody's upgrade its rating of Tryg from 'A2' to 'A1' with a stable outlook.
This organizational restructuring reflected Hübbe's finance-first mentality. Rather than pursuing premium growth at any cost, Tryg would prioritize underwriting discipline and capital efficiency—a philosophy that would prove prescient when inflation surged years later.
VI. Inflection Point #1: The Alka Acquisition (2017-2018)
Before the RSA mega-deal, there was Alka—a transaction that demonstrated Tryg's acquisition capabilities and set the stage for far larger ambitions.
In December, Tryg acquires Alka for DKK 8.2 billion, the eighth-largest non-life insurance company in Denmark with a market share of approximately 6% of the private market. In November, Tryg received the final approval of the Alka acquisition from the Danish Competition and Consumer Authority.
The insurance company Tryg acquires Alka Forsikring at a total purchase price of DKK 8.2bn. It is the largest transaction in the Danish insurance industry in the past 20 years.
Strategic Rationale
Tryg has agreed to acquire Alka Forsikring ('Alka'), the 8th largest Danish P&C insurance business. Alka offers a diversified portfolio of P&C insurance products. Alka has around 380,000 customers and gross premiums of DKK 2.5bn. Policy numbers of Alka have been growing at a CAGR of 5% over the past five years.
Two analysts said the deal could boost Tryg's market share to about 22% from 18% now, cementing its place as market leader. Topdanmark is second with 17%.
Alka was particularly attractive because of its connection to Danish trade unions—a distribution channel that Tryg could leverage but hadn't fully penetrated. Alka's ties with Danish trade unions would help Tryg, which said it expected to benefit from Alka's partnerships with unions to open up "significant opportunities to expand the business."
Synergy Targets & Financial Structure
Total consideration of DKK 8.2bn—excess capital amounts to DKK 2.5bn, resulting in a valuation for the operations of Alka of DKK 5.7bn. Best-in-class financial profile with average combined ratio over last five years of 84. Tryg has identified merger benefits in the combined entity of DKK 300m, to be delivered by 2021.
The financing demonstrated TryghedsGruppen's willingness to support transformational deals: In order to finance the transaction, Tryg will issue up to 10% of current shares outstanding in a fully underwritten equity placing through an accelerated bookbuilding, raising approximately DKK 4bn. TryghedsGruppen will subscribe pro-rata for 60% of the shares at the bookbuild price.
Alka customers would also benefit from the TryghedsGruppen relationship: Alka's customers are eligible for TryghedsGruppen's members bonus, which has been 8% of premiums per annum over the past two years.
The Alka acquisition validated Tryg's consolidation playbook: acquire quality competitors, integrate operations efficiently, deliver promised synergies, and use the enhanced scale to further strengthen competitive position. It was a dress rehearsal for something far more ambitious.
VII. Inflection Point #2: The RSA Mega-Deal—Tryg's Defining Moment (2020-2021)
The RSA acquisition was Tryg's moon landing—a bet-the-company transaction that would either transform the business or strain it beyond breaking. The acquisition of RSA's Scandinavian activities in 2020 has been a milestone in Morten Hübbe's career and a great motivation for him in recent years.
The Deal Announcement
In November 2020, Canadian insurer Intact Financial Corporation and Tryg announced a joint offer to acquire RSA Insurance Group. This would represent an approximately ÂŁ7.2 billion transaction with Intact paying ÂŁ3.0 billion and Tryg paying ÂŁ4.2 billion.
On 18 November 2020, Tryg and Intact announced their recommended cash offer on RSA of a total of GBP 7.2 billion, corresponding to approximately DKK 60 billion.
The deal structure was elegant: two strategic buyers acquiring different pieces of a multi-market insurer, each keeping the assets that fit their geographic strategy. Upon closing, Intact retains RSA's Canadian, UK and International entities, Tryg retains RSA's Swedish and Norwegian businesses, and Intact and Tryg co-own RSA's Danish business.
The Strategic Logic
The Acquisition represents a unique opportunity for Tryg to acquire a high quality non-life insurance business, becoming the largest P&C insurance company in Scandinavia. Synergies are expected to reach DKK 900m (pre-tax) in 2024, driven by Tryg's proven experience and integration expertise.
The company's competitive edge is evident when compared to major rivals such as If P&C Insurance, a subsidiary of Sampo Group that leads in Sweden and Finland, and Gjensidige Forsikring, which dominates the Norwegian market with the highest share among top players. Tryg's strategic acquisitions, including parts of RSA Insurance Group in 2021, have bolstered its standings in Sweden and Norway, positioning it as a top-three non-life insurer across Denmark, Norway, and Sweden.
In Sweden, Tryg would finally unite the Tryg brand with Trygg-Hansa—the Swedish insurer whose name similarity had forced Tryg to operate under the Moderna brand for a decade. The acquisition would vault Tryg to third place in the Swedish market.
The Rights Issue—Largest in Danish History
In 2020 the acquisition offer amounted to DKK 60bn for the combined business. In 2021 Tryg issued shares of DKK 37bn to acquire Codan Norway, Trygg-Hansa, and 50% of Codan Denmark.
During the last year Tryg has conducted a DKK 37bn rights issue (the largest ever in Denmark and one of the largest in Europe in the last few years), received all regulatory approvals, closed the deal on June 1, 2021, announced the sale of Codan Denmark on June 11 2021.
Under the terms of the transaction, announced November 18, 2020, Intact and Tryg acquired all of the issued and outstanding share capital of RSA at a price of 685 pence per common share, representing a total consideration of approximately ÂŁ7.2 billion. Intact paid ÂŁ3.0 billion of the total consideration payable and Tryg ÂŁ4.2 billion.
TryghedsGruppen's Critical Role
As a consequence of TryghedsGruppens decision to support Tryg in the acquisition of RSA Scandinavia in 2021 TryghedsGruppen's investment activities have been restructured with a focus on liquidity and solvency requirements and preparing to increase the ownership share of Tryg.
As part of the capital raise, TryghedsGruppen has provided an irrevocable undertaking to commit ~DKK 6bn, with the aim to increase to ~DKK 9bn following additional asset sales, and subscribe for further new shares in rights issue (in addition to above) on cash neutral basis. TryghedsGruppen's shareholding is expected to stand at ~45% at closing (based on the current Tryg share price), increasing to >50% over the medium-term.
TryghedsGruppen restructured its entire investment portfolio to support the deal—liquidating holdings, reducing exposure to non-core assets, and committing billions in new equity. This wasn't passive ownership; it was active stewardship.
Completion & Integration
On June 1, 2021, Intact Financial Corporation ("Intact") announced that, together with Tryg A/S ("Tryg"), it completed the acquisition of RSA Insurance Group plc. ("RSA"), having received all required approvals.
The Codan Denmark Resolution
The jointly-owned Danish business required resolution. Codan DK was acquired by Alm. Brand for a total consideration of DKK 12.6 billion ($2.3 billion), subject to post-closing adjustments. Intact is receiving 50% of the proceeds, commensurate with its stake in Codan DK.
Tryg receives 50% of the sales proceeds amounting to approximately DKK 6.3bn. As already announced on April 27th, Tryg will use the proceeds to carry out a share buyback programme of DKK 5bn which will start on May 3rd 2022.
"Not only is this the final step in a well-run process to acquire RSA's Norwegian and Swedish business, but also the beginning of a DKK 5 billion share buyback program," commented Morten HĂĽbbe. "With this milestone behind us our focus will be to successfully integrate Trygg-Hansa and Codan Norway into the business, and the realization of the promised synergies."
VIII. Post-Acquisition Transformation (2022–Present)
Synergy Delivery
Tryg Forsikring Group reported an insurance service result of DKK 7,324m (DKK 6,399m) and a combined ratio of 81.0% (82.8%) in 2024. The higher insurance service result was supported by a growth of 4.1% in local currencies, a benign large claims experience, and the delivery of accumulated synergies of DKK 930m from the RSA Scandinavia acquisition.
The synergy targets weren't just met—they were exceeded. These deals were expected to generate DKK 900 million in synergies, with 80% coming from cost savings in areas like administration, distribution, and claims processing, and 20% from commercial opportunities such as cross-selling and pricing optimization.
Leadership Transition to Johan Kirstein Brammer
Morten has therefore seen the spring of 2023 as the perfect time to put Tryg's future in the hands of a new CEO. When Johan Kirstein Brammer joined Tryg in 2016, he spearheaded a successful transformation of Tryg's Danish private business, and was subsequently appointed CCO and member of the Executive Board in 2018.
Under his leadership premiums have increased from DKK 20.5bn to approximately DKK 37bn (with full consolidation of Codan Norway and Trygg-Hansa), and Tryg's market capitalisation is up from DKK 30bn to DKK 101bn as of today.
Johan Kirstein Brammer holds a law degree from University of Copenhagen and started his career as a lawyer with Kromann Reumert. Later on, he added an MBA from Australian Graduate School of Management and a Graduate Diploma in Finance from Copenhagen Business School to his CV. During his years with McKinsey & Co, Carlsberg, Egon Zehnder and as a member of the executive board at Danish telco TDC, Johan's strong leadership skills and commercial toolbox were formed.
2024 Financial Performance
Tryg A/S reported total premiums earned of DKK 39.975 billion in 2024, reflecting a 2.4% increase from DKK 39.126 billion in 2023. This revenue was driven primarily by the personal insurance segment, which accounted for DKK 26.100 billion or 68% of total premiums, followed by commercial insurance at DKK 9.588 billion (25%) and corporate at DKK 2.908 billion (7%). Geographically, premiums were distributed with Denmark contributing 47% (DKK 18.207 billion), Sweden 31% (DKK 11.796 billion), and Norway 22% (DKK 8.282 billion).
Pre-tax profit was DKK 6,303m (DKK 5,029m) and profit after tax was DKK 4,816m (DKK 3,851m). Ordinary dividend of DKK 7.80 (DKK 7.40) per share for the full year, an increase by more than 5% from last year.
"2024 was a year of satisfactory results, and we are pleased to have reached all our financial targets for both the full year and the entire strategy period. We emerge from a period of significant macroeconomic challenges with solid key figures and a strengthened core business. This demonstrates Tryg's resilience once again as we continue to deliver on the commitments made to both customers and shareholders."
The 2027 Strategy
Tryg hosted a Capital Markets Day on 4 December 2024, unveiling its 2027 financial and strategic targets. Tryg targets a combined ratio of around 81% and an insurance service result between DKK 8.0-8.4bn supported by a Return On Own Funds (ROOF) of between 35% and 40%. These targets are the most ambitious in Tryg's history.
Tryg also communicated an ambition for shareholder remuneration of DKK 17-18bn, including an ordinary dividend of DKK 15-16bn in the period 2025-2027 and a DKK 2bn extraordinary share buyback launched in December 2024. This ambition underscores Tryg's ongoing commitment to shareholder remuneration grounded in a robust and stable insurance business.
IX. Playbook: Business & Investment Lessons
The Power of Patient Capital
TryghedsGruppen's willingness to support a DKK 37bn rights issue demonstrates the value of aligned ownership. When your majority shareholder has multi-generational time horizons and mission-aligned incentives, you can pursue transformational deals that quarterly-focused investors would reject.
Consolidation as Strategy in Mature Markets
The Nordic insurance market reached saturation decades ago. Rather than competing on price—a race to the bottom that destroys value—Tryg systematically acquired competitors, extracted synergies, and used scale advantages to build an ever-wider moat.
Mutual Heritage, Public Execution
Tryg demonstrates that demutualization doesn't require abandoning customer-centric values. The TryghedsGruppen structure preserves member alignment while enabling public market discipline and access to equity capital.
Geographic Diversification Within a Region
Tryg stayed focused on Scandinavia rather than chasing growth in distant markets. Tryg maintains a balanced distribution of insurance revenue across the Scandinavian countries, with approximately 50% of revenue generated in Denmark, 30% in Sweden, and 20% in Norway.
This concentration provides diversification (different currencies, economies, and weather patterns) without the complexity of managing radically different regulatory and cultural environments.
Integration Excellence
Tryg has repeatedly delivered on synergy promises—a rare achievement in an industry littered with overpromised, underdelivered acquisitions. The higher insurance service result was supported by the delivery of accumulated synergies of DKK 930m from the RSA Scandinavia acquisition.
Underwriting Discipline
The company's profitability remained robust, with an insurance service result of DKK 7.325 billion in 2024, up from DKK 6.399 billion in 2023. Key ratios underscored operational efficiency, including a combined ratio of 81.0%, below the target of under 95%, indicating strong underwriting performance.
Tryg's level of profitability is outstanding compared to other European peers, supported by its strong and stable underwriting results as reflected by consistently reported combined ratios in the low 80s.
Capital Return Philosophy
Tryg's dividend policy states the ambition to grow the annual nominal dividend paid out to shareholders while maintaining a solid solvency position based on Tryg's partial internal capital model. Tryg aims to offer a nominally stable and increasing ordinary dividend on an annual basis. The targeted pay-out ratio of 60-90% (based on operating earnings) is secondary to the aim of increasing the annual dividend. Dividends are paid quarterly.
X. Porter's 5 Forces & Hamilton's 7 Powers Analysis
Porter's 5 Forces
1. Threat of New Entrants: LOW
We believe the life insurance sectors are somewhat riskier than the property/casualty (P/C) sectors, mainly because of asset-liability mismatches amid continually low interest rates, which pose significant product risk. However, Nordic insurance markets are generally concentrated, with high operational barriers to entry, dissuading non-Nordic competition.
Overall, we see lower risk in Nordic P/C insurance sectors than in many other such sectors in Europe. Several larger players are focusing on profitability rather than growth, and we expect them to continue doing so. We also see material entry barriers for new insurers, the main ones being the need for a strong brand and much lower expense ratios than in other markets.
At the same time, the strong customer loyalty and the high degree of cost efficiency achieved by local market players implies very significant barriers to entry. Tryg's distribution capabilities are strong, with the majority of its business being sold directly to customers in both the retail and commercial sectors. This allows for strong control over the distribution channel.
2. Bargaining Power of Buyers: MODERATE
Individual customers have low switching costs but tend to be highly loyal due to service quality and, in Denmark, the TryghedsGruppen bonus scheme. Commercial customers negotiate more aggressively but value stability and claims handling expertise.
3. Bargaining Power of Suppliers: LOW
Insurance "suppliers" are primarily reinsurers, claims service providers, and capital sources. Tryg's scale provides negotiating leverage with all three.
4. Threat of Substitutes: LOW
Insurance is often mandatory (motor, workers' compensation) or practically essential (property). Self-insurance is viable only for the largest corporations. No disruptive technology has meaningfully altered demand patterns.
5. Competitive Rivalry: MODERATE-HIGH
Main competitors are OP and LähiTapiola in Finland, LF and Folksam in Sweden and Tryg and Gjensidige in Norway. In Denmark, If and Topdanmark compete against Tryg and Codan.
Tryg er det største forsikringsselskab i Danmark med en markedsandel på 24,7%. Derefter følger Topdanmark med en markedsandel på 14,5%. Herefter følger Codan og Gjensidige Forsikring.
Competition is intense among incumbents but rational—players compete on service and brand rather than destructive price wars.
Hamilton's 7 Powers Framework
1. Scale Economies: STRONG
These capabilities are enhanced by a relatively high level of digitalization, which also contributes to Tryg's strong record of maintaining a low expense ratio. Moody's considers the Tryg brand to be strong, helping the Group to maintain very strong retention of existing customers and in gaining additional customers.
Tryg's expense ratio of 13.5% reflects scale advantages in IT infrastructure, claims procurement, and administrative overhead that smaller competitors cannot match.
2. Network Effects: MODERATE
Not a traditional network business, but TryghedsGruppen's member structure creates indirect network effects—more members means more philanthropic impact, stronger brand awareness, and potentially larger bonus pools.
3. Counter-Positioning: STRONG
The mutual heritage/public company hybrid is difficult for competitors to replicate. Traditional mutual companies lack public market discipline; pure public companies lack patient capital support. Tryg has both.
4. Switching Costs: MODERATE-HIGH (Denmark), MODERATE (elsewhere)
In Denmark, switching means forfeiting TryghedsGruppen membership and bonus eligibility—a real financial cost. Elsewhere, switching costs come from relationship inertia and service satisfaction.
5. Branding: STRONG
In Denmark, Tryg is the strongest insurance brand, according to the 2012 brand index for the financial sector prepared for Finanswatch.
The Tryg brand in Denmark and Trygg-Hansa in Sweden carry decades of trust and recognition that cannot be built quickly.
6. Cornered Resource: MODERATE
TryghedsGruppen's 48% stake is essentially a cornered resource—it provides strategic flexibility (rights issue support, long-term perspective) that competitors cannot access.
7. Process Power: STRONG
Tryg's repeated success integrating acquisitions (Baltica, Vesta, Moderna, Alka, RSA Scandinavia) reflects institutional capabilities in M&A execution that rivals have not demonstrated at comparable scale.
XI. Competitive Landscape & Market Position
In Denmark, Tryg commands a market share of 22.4% in non-life insurance (as of 2024), solidifying its status as the foremost player. In Norway, it ranks fourth with a 14.7% share, and in Sweden, it secures third place at 17.3% (as of 2024). Although its presence in Finland is more limited through specialized trade operations, Tryg contributes to the broader Nordic insurance landscape as a key operator.
The non-life insurance company Tryg has the largest market share in the country, and is also operating in Sweden, Finland and Norway, where it is the third largest company. Norway is Tryg's second largest market in terms of gross premium income, after the Danish market. On Norway's non-life insurance market, the Norwegian company Gjensidige has around one fourth of the market share, and is clearly the largest insurance company in the country. Gjensidige also operates on the Danish and Swedish markets, and in the Baltics.
Key Competitors:
- If P&C Insurance (Sampo Group): Leads in Sweden and Finland; diversified Nordic presence
- Gjensidige: Dominant in Norway; expanding in Denmark and Baltics
- Topdanmark (Sampo Group): #2 in Denmark; focused on Danish market
- Alm. Brand: #3 in Denmark after Codan acquisition; growing rapidly
On the asset side, Nordic insurers carry materially lower credit risk than their European peers. For instance, Tryg has near-zero exposure to sub-investment grade credit, while Sampo holds ~32%—both well below the European sector average of ~60%. This translates into lower earnings- and share price volatility.
XII. Financial Analysis & Key Metrics
2024 Full Year Results Summary
| Metric | 2024 | 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premiums Earned | DKK 39.975B | DKK 39.126B | +2.4% |
| Insurance Service Result | DKK 7.325B | DKK 6.399B | +14.5% |
| Combined Ratio | 81.0% | 82.8% | -180 bps |
| Expense Ratio | 13.5% | 13.4% | +10 bps |
| Pre-tax Profit | DKK 6,303M | DKK 5,029M | +25.3% |
| Profit After Tax | DKK 4,816M | DKK 3,851M | +25.0% |
| Dividend Per Share | DKK 7.80 | DKK 7.40 | +5.4% |
The reported solvency ratio at the end of 2024 was 197% for Tryg Forsikring A/S (Parent company).
Q2 2025 Update
The combined ratio improved to 77.2% from 78.8% in the restated Q2 2024 figures, reflecting better underwriting performance and cost control.
The company's H1 2025 results further validate its momentum, with an insurance service result of DKK 3.8 billion and a combined ratio of 80.7%, both ahead of the prior-year period. This financial strength underpins its ability to return capital to shareholders: a Q2 dividend of DKK 2.05 per share—a 5% increase over Q2 2024—maintains its reputation as a reliable dividend payer (4.88% yield) with 20 consecutive years of dividend growth.
Capital Return Track Record
Tryg A/S has an annual dividend of 8.20 DKK per share, with a yield of 5.12%. The dividend is paid every three months and the last ex-dividend date was Oct 13, 2025.
XIII. Key Risks & Considerations
Regulatory Risk
The Danish Competition and Consumer Authority has initiated investigations into pricing practices in the Danish private insurance market. Among listed insurers, Tryg and Alm. Brand are most exposed to Denmark and thus most affected by regulatory uncertainty.
Currency Exposure
Tryg maintains a balanced distribution of insurance revenue across the Scandinavian countries, with approximately 50% of revenue generated in Denmark, 30% in Sweden, and 20% in Norway.
With significant operations in Sweden and Norway, Tryg faces currency translation risk when reporting in Danish kroner. The Danish krone is pegged to the euro, but Swedish and Norwegian currencies float freely.
Weather & Climate Risk
These positives are partly offset by moderate exposure to natural catastrophes and some long-tailed products.
The Nordics have historically experienced fewer catastrophic weather events than other regions, but climate change may alter this pattern. Increased flood, windstorm, and fire frequency would pressure underwriting results.
Competition
Risks to Consider: Market Competition: Aggressive pricing by peers could erode margins.
While Nordic insurers have historically competed rationally, disruption from insurtechs or aggressive pricing by subscale players seeking market share could pressure margins.
XIV. Investment Thesis & KPIs to Watch
Bull Case
- Market Leader in Attractive Region: Dominant position in Denmark, top-three in Sweden and Norway, operating in one of the world's most profitable insurance markets
- Proven Integration Capabilities: Track record of delivering promised synergies from acquisitions
- Unique Ownership Structure: TryghedsGruppen provides patient capital support and customer alignment
- Strong Capital Return: 5%+ dividend yield with quarterly payments and share buybacks
- Underwriting Excellence: Combined ratios consistently in low 80s, targeting 81% by 2027
Bear Case
- Geographic Concentration: 100% Nordic exposure means limited diversification if regional economy weakens
- Regulatory Overhang: Danish investigations could require business practice changes
- Integration Risk: RSA Scandinavia integration still ongoing; execution risk remains
- Limited Growth: Mature markets offer steady earnings but constrained organic growth
- Currency Volatility: SEK and NOK fluctuations impact reported results
XV. Key KPIs to Monitor
For investors tracking Tryg's ongoing performance, three metrics matter most:
1. Combined Ratio
The single most important metric for a P&C insurer. Tryg's target of ~81% by 2027 reflects both underwriting discipline and operational efficiency. Any sustained deterioration above 85% would signal competitive pressure or claims inflation. Despite the challenges of higher claims inflation, rising claims frequencies, and above-average number of weather-related claims in 2023, Tryg maintained very strong combined ratio of 82.8% at YE2023, thanks to robust price increases and very high retention levels.
2. Insurance Service Result (ISR)
Tryg targets a combined ratio of around 81% and an insurance service result between DKK 8.0-8.4bn supported by a Return On Own Funds (ROOF) of between 35% and 40%.
The ISR captures the core profitability of insurance operations, excluding investment returns. Tryg's 2027 target of DKK 8.0-8.4B represents meaningful growth from 2024's DKK 7.3B.
3. Solvency II Ratio
The company maintains a high solvency ratio of 199%.
This measures Tryg's capital adequacy relative to regulatory requirements. A ratio above 170% provides comfortable headroom for dividends, acquisitions, and adverse developments. Sustained declines below 175% would signal capital constraints.
XVI. Conclusion: The Moat Built From Fire
Nearly three centuries have passed since Copenhagen burned and Danish merchants invented fire insurance. Through world wars, financial crises, demutualizations, and transformational acquisitions, the company that emerged from those ashes has proven remarkably resilient.
Tryg's competitive position rests on interlocking advantages: scale economies from being the largest Nordic insurer, brand strength from decades of customer trust, switching costs from TryghedsGruppen membership, and patient capital from ownership that thinks in generations rather than quarters.
The RSA acquisition doubled the company's Nordic footprint and demonstrated that Tryg could execute complex cross-border deals at scale. The integration is proceeding ahead of plan, synergies are being delivered, and management has set the most ambitious financial targets in company history.
For long-term investors seeking exposure to one of the world's most attractive insurance markets, Tryg offers a compelling combination: strong market position, excellent underwriting discipline, and a dividend yield exceeding 5%. The risks are real—regulatory scrutiny in Denmark, currency volatility, and limited organic growth—but the defensive characteristics of the business and its proven management team provide meaningful protection.
The Copenhagen fire of 1728 was a catastrophe. The institution it created has become a pillar of Nordic financial infrastructure. Nearly 300 years later, Tryg continues its original mission: transforming collective risk into individual peace of mind.
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