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Renault: From Parisian Garage to Global Alliance Drama
I. Introduction: A 126-Year Story of French Ambition, Global Intrigue, and One of History's Most Audacious Corporate Escapes
Picture the scene: December 29, 2019. A quiet residential neighborhood in Tokyo. One of the most famous executives in the automotive world—a man who simultaneously ran two Fortune 500 companies and resurrected one of Japan's industrial icons from near-bankruptcy—sits in his apartment under house arrest, awaiting trial on financial misconduct charges. Somewhere outside, surveillance officers maintain their watch.
And then, somehow, he vanishes.
Carlos Ghosn, the Brazilian-Lebanese-French architect of one of history's most audacious cross-cultural corporate alliances, left his home in Tokyo and took a bullet train to Osaka. At a hotel there, he hid in a big box supposedly containing audio equipment, that had air holes punched in it so he could breathe. On 30 December 2019, Ghosn fled Japan in violation of his bail. He was transported hidden in a large road case aboard a private jet which flew from Osaka to Istanbul, then to Beirut.
The escape—worthy of a Hollywood thriller—became a global sensation. But it was merely the climax of a far longer story, one that stretches back 126 years to a different kind of drama: three brothers in Paris, a wager on a steep Montmartre street, and a machine that would help France win a world war.
This is the story of Renault: a company that invented the modern tank, built the "people's car" for post-war France, orchestrated one of the boldest cross-border acquisitions in automotive history, and became the center of an international corporate scandal that reshaped global auto industry governance.
The Renault–Nissan–Mitsubishi Alliance—which together sell more than one in nine vehicles worldwide—comprises strategic partners since 1999 who control eight major brands: Renault, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Infiniti, Renault Korea, Dacia, Alpine, and Venucia. The car group sold 10.6 million vehicles worldwide in 2017, making it the leading light vehicle manufacturing group in the world.
But this is not a story of smooth corporate progress. It's a story of innovation colliding with bureaucracy, of cross-cultural alliances tested to their breaking point, of state capitalism meeting global competition, and of how one man's spectacular downfall—and even more spectacular escape—reshaped a partnership that took decades to build.
The central question isn't just how Ghosn ended up in that box. It's this: How did a company founded by three brothers in 1899 become the center of one of history's most dramatic corporate scandals—complete with an international fugitive CEO, $14 million in forfeited bail, and an alliance now desperately searching for its next chapter?
II. Founding Origins: Three Brothers, One Bet, and the Birth of an Industrial Empire
On Christmas Eve 1898, the steep cobblestones of Rue Lepic in Montmartre were slick with Parisian winter. Louis Renault, a 21-year-old engineering obsessive with grease perpetually under his fingernails, had made a wager with friends: his self-built automobile could climb the 13% grade that defeated horse-drawn carriages.
The fourth of six children born into the bourgeois Parisian family of Alfred and Berthe Renault, Louis Renault attended Lycée Condorcet. He was fascinated by engineering and mechanics from an early age and spent hours in the Serpollet steam car workshop or tinkering with old Panhard engines in the tool shed of the family's second home in Billancourt.
He built his first car in 1898, hiring a pair of workmen to modify a used De Dion-Bouton cycle which featured a revolutionary universally jointed driveshaft and a three-speed gearbox with reverse, with the third gear in direct drive. Renault called his car the Voiturette. On 24 December 1898, he won a bet with his friends that his invention with an innovative driveshaft could beat a car with a bicycle-like chain drive up the slope of Rue Lepic in Montmartre.
As well as winning the bet, Renault received 13 definite orders for the vehicle. It was a founding myth worthy of any tech startup—except this one happened 125 years before Silicon Valley coined the term.
Seeing the commercial potential, he teamed up with his two older brothers, Marcel and Fernand, who had business experience from working in their father's button and textiles firm. They formed the Renault Frères company on February 25, 1899. Initially, business and administration was handled entirely by the elder brothers, with Louis dedicating himself to design and manufacturing.
The division of labor was perfect: Marcel and Fernand handled the money while Louis built the machines. The brothers understood instinctively what many modern founders struggle to grasp—that engineering brilliance and business acumen rarely coexist in one person.
Renault's numerous patents revolutionized the automotive industry. Chief among his designs were hydraulic shock absorbers, the drum brake, and the turbocharger. His hydraulic shock absorber is still a common feature on automobiles today.
But the Renault brothers also understood something else: the power of marketing through competition. Marcel was killed in the 1903 Paris-Madrid motor race, a tragedy that devastated Louis but didn't stop the company's momentum. In 1908, Louis Renault took overall control of the company after Fernand retired for health reasons. Fernand subsequently died in 1909.
By then, Louis was sole master of an empire. That same year the company received major orders for taxicabs for Paris and London, and Renault-built cabs were even deployed as far away as New York City and Buenos Aires. Renault became one of the founders of the Grand Prix racing circuit. In 1906, a Renault AK 90CV won the first-ever Grand Prix event.
The trajectory from Christmas Eve bet to Grand Prix champion took less than eight years. And yet the company's greatest test—and its darkest chapter—was still ahead.
III. World Wars, Collaboration, and the Dark Chapter of Nationalization
When the guns of August 1914 shattered European peace, Louis Renault pivoted his factories to the war effort with characteristic intensity. During World War I his factories contributed massively to the war effort, notably so by the creation and manufacture of the first tank of modern configuration, the Renault FT tank.
The FT that debuted on 31st May 1918 introduced new elements to tank warfare, both conceptually and in design terms. It would go on to become the most produced tank of the First World War and afterwards the first tank to be sold worldwide.
On the 31st May 1918 the Renault FT was used in action for the first time at Ploissy-Chazelle, southwest of Soissons. The 501st Regiment d'Artillery Speciale used 31 tanks to support a counter-attack against German forces advancing towards the Forest of Villers-Cotterets. The 'Charge at Chaudun' was a great success for the crews of the new tank. They had caused panic in the German ranks and crippled two German Divisions at the cost of just 5 vehicles.
By the end of the war, more than 3,500 Renault FTs had rolled off French assembly lines. More FTs were produced than all other First World War tank models combined.
Renault was also the leading producer of airplane engines for the Allies and Louis Renault was awarded the Grand Cross of the LĂ©gion d'honneur for his contributions.
But World War I was merely prologue. The inter-war years saw Renault become France's largest manufacturer, and Louis began benchmarking the production techniques of the American manufacturers. He followed Henry Ford's example of moving virtually all aspects of production in-house, and even acquired his own foundries, sandpits, forests, saw mills and railroad.
Then came the Depression, and with it, labor unrest. His bad days started from 1939, when he had to dismiss 2,000 union members from their job. It earned him a bad name and left him without political support.
And then came the occupation.
The Collaboration Controversy
When Nazi forces rolled into France in 1940, Louis Renault faced an impossible choice. Military and Daimler-Benz officials arrived at the gates of his Billancourt factory to assess it for removal into Germany, together with its workforce. Renault fended them off by agreeing to make vehicles for the Wehrmacht.
According to Anthony Rhodes's Louis Renault: A Biography, Renault once said of the Germans "It is better to give them the butter, or they'll take the cows."
Over a period of four years, Renault manufactured 34,232 vehicles for the Germans. He argued that "by continuing operations he had saved thousands of workers from being transported to Germany."
Subsequent historical analysis has complicated the simple narrative of collaboration. While Renault had collaborated, "he also hived off strategic materials and sabotaged trucks. Dipsticks were marked low, for example, and engines dried and seized in action, an outcome much in evidence on the Russian Front."
But none of this mattered in the feverish atmosphere of Liberation. Accused of collaborating with the Germans during World War II, he died while awaiting trial in liberated France toward the end of 1944 under uncertain circumstances. His company was seized and nationalized by the provisional government of France, although he died before he could be tried. His factories were the only ones permanently expropriated by the French government.
Renault was taken into custody and awaited trial at a Frésnes military prison facility in Paris. He was then moved to a psychiatric prison facility, and his health rapidly deteriorated. Finally, the pleas of his family and supporters resulted in another relocation, this time to a nearby private hospital, but he had already sunk into a coma and died there on October 24, 1944.
For years, rumors circulated that blows to the head three weeks earlier may have caused Renault's cerebral hemorrhage, but the cause of death was officially listed as heart failure.
The family's suspicions linger to this day. When the company was nationalized, Renault's wife and son did not receive any compensation, although other shareholders did. Besides, the family suspects that Louis Renault did not die a natural death, but was murdered.
Whether martyr or collaborator—or both—Louis Renault's story ended with the stroke of a bureaucratic pen. The company that bore his name became Régie Nationale des Usines Renault: a state-owned enterprise charged with rebuilding France.
IV. The State-Owned Era: Building the People's Car
Out of the ashes of collaboration accusations and nationalization came something remarkable: France's first true "people's car."
In the midst of the Second World War, Renault was secretly working on the development of a small car. Secretly but efficiently as, despite the wartime conditions, Renault's designers laid the foundations for Renault 4CV, which was launched in October 1946 once France had embarked upon its reconstruction.
With the memorable slogan "4 doors, 4 seats, 4 CV, 440,000 francs!" Renault affirmed its ambitions to make the Renault 4CV a compact, comfortable and economical car. Renault 4CV was able to carry four people comfortably, its flat floor kept clear by the rear positioning of the engine.
The 4CV became an unlikely symbol of national resurgence. On the 4CV's launch, it was nicknamed "La motte de beurre" (the lump of butter); this was due to the combination of its shape and the fact that early deliveries all used surplus paint from the German Army vehicles of Rommel's Afrika Korps, which were a sand-yellow color.
The timing was exquisite. As the first new road-going Renault launched after World War Two, the 4CV was intended to offer cheap, cheerful motoring for the masses. Launched in 1947, it beat Citroën's 2CV to market by a year.
Renault 4CV was the best-selling car in France until 1955, and embodied a return to peace and prosperity. In 1961, however, it bowed out, making way for another big Renault success, the R4, which went down in history under the name 4L.
This led to 14 years of successful Renault 4CV production, a total of 1.1 million cars being built from 1947 to 1961. This model was the first French car to exceed a production of 1 million.
The succession of people's cars continued. Eventually over eight million Renault 4s were built, in twenty factories on four continents. The Renault 4 was a commercial success because of the timing of its introduction, and the merits of its value for money design. The car was launched when decades of economic stagnation gave way to growing prosperity in France, and surging car ownership. The first million cars were produced by 1 February 1966, less than four and a half years after launch.
The philosophy was clear: Renault would be the car for ordinary French citizens. In early 1956, Renault Chairman Pierre Dreyfus launched a new project: designing a new model to replace the rear-engined 4CV and compete against the Citroën 2CV that would become an everyman's car. Dreyfus summed up his intention for the project by requesting his staff produce "a blue jeans car" — a car that, like the denim trousers that were becoming increasingly popular, could be as useful for recreation as for work.
By the 1970s and 80s, the formula was working. Cost discipline and focused product lines drove profitability. The privatization of the company in July 1996 marked a watershed moment, freeing Renault to pursue the audacious international expansion that would define its next chapter.
What came next was one of the boldest bets in automotive history.
V. The Nissan Alliance: The Most Audacious Bet in Auto History
In the spring of 1999, Nissan was dying.
Before Ghosn's arrival, Nissan had been operating at a loss for the prior seven years. "Years of mismanagement and a well-intentioned but unrealistic focus on engineering regardless of cost had swept the business colossus that is Nissan to the brink of collapse."
During the 1990s, Nissan steadily declined with sales dropping globally, losing share and revenues in virtually all markets. By the end of the decade, it was on the edge of a black hole with a debt of US$20 billion.
Every major automaker circled the carcass. Daimler-Chrysler looked hard but walked away, unwilling to assume the debt load. Ford passed. GM's Bob Lutz famously dismissed any rescue attempt as "leaving a container including $5 billion in the middle of the ocean to sink."
Enter Renault.
It was in March of 1999 that Carlos Ghosn got the call from Louis Schweitzer, CEO of Renault, asking if he would be willing to go to Tokyo to lead a turnaround at Nissan. The two companies had just agreed to a major strategic alliance in which Renault would assume $5.4 billion of Nissan's debt in return for a 36.6% equity stake in the Japanese company. The combined company would be the world's fourth largest carmaker. On paper, the deal made sense for both sides: Nissan's strength in North America filled an important gap for Renault, while Renault's cash reduced Nissan's mountain of debt. The capabilities of the two companies were also complementary: Renault was known for innovative design and Nissan for the quality of its engineering.
The man Schweitzer sent to Tokyo was perfectly suited for impossible turnarounds. Ghosn had earned the French nickname "Le Cost Cutter" through brutal restructuring at Michelin and later at Renault itself, where he closed the Vilvoorde factory in Belgium despite massive protests.
As Nissan's new chief operating officer, he faced a daunting challenge as the automaker was troubled, deeply in debt, lacked profitability, and had a declining global market share. Within three months, Ghosn laid down the gauntlet and announced his Nissan Revival Plan to turn the company around and make it one of the best auto makers on Earth in three years. He also promised that he and his top managers would resign if the automaker was not profitable in 2001.
The Nissan Revival Plan
The plan was radical. Closing down 5 factories in Japan and laying off 21,000 Nissan employees, most of whom worked in Japan. This number equaled 14% of the workforce. The production in Japan was operating with 53% capacity. It was aimed to reach 80% capacity use after factory close-down.
According to the result of the cost analysis, only 4 of the 43 models made profit.
One of the biggest changes was in purchasing. Traditionally, Japanese companies form close ties with their suppliers. However, as with the Renault restructuring, Ghosn focused on reducing procurement costs by doing more business with whichever companies could best meet requests for lower prices. It was based purely on merit.
This was heresy in Japan, where keiretsu relationships—the interlocking business relationships between manufacturers and suppliers—were considered almost sacred.
But it worked. Spectacularly.
The Nissan Revival Plan is over. Two years after the start of its implementation, all the official commitments we took have been overachieved one full year ahead of schedule. Today, as I review our performance in fiscal year 2001, you will see that Nissan will post its best-ever full-year earnings and fourth consecutive record half-year operating profit. This is the fruit of NRP, fruit that even the most optimistic of outside observers in 1999 didn't even think of.
Twelve months into his three-year turnaround plan, Nissan had returned to profitability, and within three years it was one of the industry's most profitable auto makers, with operating margins consistently above 9%; more than twice the industry average. The goals of the Nissan Revival Plan were all reached before 31 March 2002.
In May 2002, Ghosn announced his next set of goals for the company, "Nissan 180", a three-year plan for growth. In the spring of 2003, Nissan announced that its net automotive debt was eliminated in fiscal year 2002. Nissan's operating profit margin climbed to 11.1% in fiscal year 2003; it had been 1.4% in fiscal year 1999.
The numbers were staggering. A company that had only 4 profitable models out of 43 became one where every single vehicle contributed to the bottom line. The man who delivered this miracle became a legend.
As Ghosn continued to meet his goals with his Nissan Revival Plan in 2002 with record profits of $3 billion and a reduction in debt, he was lauded in Japan. In 2002, he was the subject of a manga (comic book) series produced in Japan entitled The True Life of Carlos Ghosn. In the comic, Ghosn was immortalized as a superhero who saved Nissan. The story integrated episodes of his life with Nissan's celebrated turnaround, and sold more than half a million copies per issue.
A comic book superhero. In Japan. For a foreign CEO. It was unprecedented—and perhaps a warning sign of the cult of personality building around one man.
VI. The Ghosn Era: Running Two Fortune 500 Companies Simultaneously
In 2005, Carlos Ghosn achieved something no one had done before or has done since.
In May 2005, Ghosn was named president and chief executive officer of Renault. When he assumed the CEO roles at both Renault and Nissan, Ghosn became the world's first person to simultaneously run two companies on the Fortune Global 500.
The logistics were almost comically complex: Ghosn commuted between Paris and Tokyo, managing two distinct corporate cultures, two regulatory environments, two sets of stakeholders—while personally leading product launches, labor negotiations, and strategic planning on both sides.
Worldwide sales grew again and doubled, from 2.4 million in 1999 to 4.8 million in 2011.
In October 2005, Nissan announced that its annual sales from 30 September 2004, to 30 September 2005, were more than 3.67 million, up from the 2.6 million vehicles sold in the fiscal year ended March 2002.
The ambitions kept growing. In 2016, Nissan acquired a controlling stake in Mitsubishi Motors, creating a three-way alliance that briefly claimed the title of world's largest automaker by volume.
But there were warning signs that, in retrospect, seem obvious.
Ghosn made his name for being "brilliant but also relentless with a ruthless focus on efficiency and a superhuman work ethic," says documentary director James Jones, but, "People say that over time, he lost his focus and felt like he had earned the right to enjoy the trappings of his success."
The first Versailles party was allegedly for the anniversary of the Nissan-Renault alliance but coincidentally fell on Ghosn's 60th birthday and was filled with more family and friends than executives. "When Louis Schweitzer heard about the party, he thought, 'This guy has completely lost touch with reality.'"
The electric vehicle bet was visionary. In 2007, Ghosn committed €4 billion to developing mass-market EVs. The Nissan Leaf, launched in 2010, became one of the world's best-selling electric cars. By 2017, the Renault-Nissan Alliance was the world leader in electric vehicles, selling more than twice as many electric cars as Tesla.
But the complexity of the alliance—the cross-shareholdings, the cultural tensions, the concentration of power in one man—created fragilities that wouldn't become apparent until everything fell apart.
VII. The Arrest: November 19, 2018
The private jet touched down at Haneda Airport on the evening of November 19, 2018. Carlos Ghosn had made this trip countless times. This time was different.
On 19 November 2018, Carlos Ghosn was arrested by Tokyo prosecutors shortly after landing in Japan on a private jet. Nissan alleged that Ghosn had underreported nearly $80 million in compensation and misused company assets, launching an internal investigation against him. Ghosn, however, denied wrongdoing, stating that all payments were legal and known to the company's internal auditors and board.
Ghosn was detained at the Tokyo Detention House for 108 days, often in solitary confinement, and subjected to lengthy daily interrogations without a lawyer present. He described the conditions as psychological coercion and labeled Japan's pre-trial system "hostage justice."
"There was no way I was going to be treated fairly," Ghosn later said. "No sign that I was going to have a normal life for the next four or five years. So I can tell you that it's not very difficult to come to the conclusion that you're going to die in Japan, or you're going to have to get out."
Ghosn pointed to Japan's remarkably high conviction rate, which stands at more than 99% after indictment, to make the point that he would not have received a fair and speedy trial.
The question that still divides observers: Was Ghosn a legitimate target of financial misconduct charges, or the victim of a corporate coup d'Ă©tat orchestrated by Nissan executives who resented French influence?
Ghosn's narrative was clear: this was a setup. Japanese executives and bureaucrats, alarmed by his plans to merge Nissan more closely with Renault, conspired with prosecutors to remove him. The financial charges were pretexts.
The counternarrative was equally clear: Ghosn had grown arrogant and entitled, using company resources for personal benefit, living lavishly while cutting jobs.
"The first allegations are pretty minor, but the later ones are much more serious, and he does have a case to answer to but he won't go to France to stand trial," says documentary director Jones. The evidence appears strong against Ghosn. But even if his actions prove not to have been illegal, "doing it without telling the company speaks volumes about a sense of entitlement," says Sean McLain, co-author of the investigative book Boundless.
What's certain is that the arrest shattered the alliance's operational cohesion and unleashed years of acrimony between Paris and Tokyo.
The Great Escape
On 30 December 2019, Ghosn fled Japan in violation of his bail. He was transported hidden in a large road case aboard a private jet which flew from Osaka to Istanbul, then to Beirut. He described the move as an "escape from injustice," stating that he faced a judicial system where "guilt was presumed." Japanese authorities condemned the escape, forfeited Ghosn's $14 million bail, and issued international arrest warrants. Interpol issued a Red Notice, but Lebanon – where Ghosn holds citizenship – declined to extradite him.
The stuff of a Netflix documentary: a former US Army Green Beret led a team that smuggled Ghosn through security at Kansai International Airport in an audio-equipment box, then onto a private jet bound for Istanbul. From there, a separate plane took him to Lebanon. Today, Ghosn is safely ensconced in the country of his childhood, which doesn't extradite its citizens.
A Tokyo court handed down prison terms for the American father and son accused of helping. Michael Taylor was sentenced to two years in prison, while his son Peter was sentenced to one year and eight months.
Lebanese authorities imposed a travel ban on Ghosn, and French authorities later issued their own international warrant regarding alleged misuse of Renault funds.
As of November 2025, Ghosn remains in Beirut, a fugitive from Japanese justice, shielded by Lebanese law, conducting interviews, writing books, and maintaining that the alliance he built was destroyed by conspiracy.
VIII. The Alliance Unravels: 2019-2025
The arrest didn't just remove one man. It detonated the trust architecture that held together a $150 billion partnership.
In January 2023, Renault and Nissan moved to restructure their alliance in order to recover from Ghosn's arrest and manage through a post-Covid economy. The primary objective was to give both companies more autonomy.
For many years, Renault had a 43.4% voting stake in Nissan and Nissan held a 15% non-voting stake in Renault, effectively giving Renault control. In 2023, Renault reduced its 43.3% voting stake in Nissan to 15% and Nissan will now be able to vote with its 15% stake in Renault.
The major corporate shakeup forced French manufacturer Renault to give up nearly 30% of its ownership stake in the Japanese carmaker in an effort to reconfigure the coalition's shareholdings amid a shifting global economic landscape fraught by inflation and consumer shock. Prior to the agreement, Renault held 43% of Nissan but saw its stake reduced to 15%.
The alliance transitioned from a standardised global model to a project-driven cooperation. The lead company for a specific project has the autonomy to define specifications and processes, enabling quicker decisions and better suitability for regional market needs.
In March 2025, the unwinding continued. Nissan and Renault went further, saying they had agreed to reduce their required minimum stake in each other to 10% from 15%, freeing up much-needed capital for other projects.
In parallel, Nissan would be released from its commitment to invest in Ampere. Thus, the investment agreement entered into on July 26, 2023, between Renault Group, Nissan and Ampere would be terminated.
Ghosn, from his exile in Beirut, offered a blunt epitaph: the alliance was shattered because trust was lost. He called it "the beginning of the end of the Nissan-Renault alliance."
November 2025: Talks of Revival?
Yet in a twist that Ghosn himself might appreciate, Nissan and Renault may look to strengthen their fractured relationship and alliance, several months after Luca de Meo resigned as Renault chief executive in mid-July. Given the current financial turmoil that the Japanese brand is in, it perhaps comes as no surprise that it's eager to firm up the alliance.
Renault Group and Nissan are in talks to revive their faltering alliance following leadership changes at the two automakers and struggles at Nissan.
However, due to Nissan's falling share price, things haven't worked out quite as de Meo had hoped. Renault currently still owns almost 36 percent of Nissan, including 18.7 percent in a French trust. Earlier this year, Renault had to write off €9.5 billion of its stake in Nissan.
At Nissan, CEO Ivan Espinosa took over from Makato Uchida in March following the collapse of merger talks between Nissan and Honda. Espinosa has put in place a turnaround plan involving job cuts and plant closures, but Nissan still expects to lose $1.8 billion this fiscal year.
The new leaders are talking. According to the Financial Times, Renault's new chief, François Provost, is keen to reinforce existing alliances. A spokesperson confirmed that Provost has been in frequent contact with Nissan's new boss, Ivan Espinosa, discussing how the two automakers might cooperate more effectively.
Whether they can rebuild what Ghosn built—and what his arrest destroyed—remains the central question for both companies.
IX. Renault's EV Pivot: The Ampere Story
While the alliance drama consumed headlines, Renault was quietly executing one of the most ambitious electric vehicle strategies in Europe.
Renault announced its Ampere unit in Nov. 2022 to design, engineer, manufacture and market affordable, software-based EVs under the Renault brand.
Since November 1, 2023, Ampere has been operating autonomously.
The plan was bold: spin off Renault's EV operations, attract Tesla-like valuations, and use the proceeds to fund the electric transition. While the IPO was scheduled for the first part of 2024 with an expected valuation of up to €10 billion, Renault said that market conditions weren't optimal to make the move.
Considering both current equity market conditions and stronger cash generation, Renault Group decided to cancel the Ampere IPO process. The whole Ampere team remains fully committed to execute its strategy and build its track-record.
The main focuses are on: a clear roadmap already engaged to drastically reduce EV cost by 40% in one generation; a sound tech plan to differentiate with software and AI solutions; major upcoming launches with Scenic, Renault 5, Renault 4, Twingo and 2 additional cars.
The IPO cancellation was disappointing but not fatal. Renault plans to go purely electric by 2030—and with the French government holding a 15% stake in the company, keeping its high-profile EV business in France is essential.
Despite not going public, Ampere has become a manufacturing powerhouse. The Douai plant has undergone a major transformation: €550 million invested to build a new flexible standard line equipped with two modular platforms, Ampr Small (segment A/B) and Ampr Medium (segment C). The site produces 4 brands: Renault, Alpine, Nissan Micra EV, and Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross.
Ampere has developed and is now preparing to manufacture fully electric models—each designed under its respective brand identity: the all-new Nissan Micra and the next-generation Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross. These vehicles will be built on Ampere's advanced AmpR Small and AmpR Medium platforms. Both models are currently being prepared at the Douai plant, with commercial launches scheduled for late 2025.
The early results are promising. Renault 5 E-Tech electric was voted Car of the Year 2025 by a panel of 60 journalists from 23 European countries. This award confirms the relevance of Renault's electric vehicle strategy. Launched first in October in France, Renault 5 E-Tech electric has seen almost 10,000 registrations and is already France's best-selling B-segment electric car.
X. Recent Performance: The Turnaround Takes Hold
The numbers tell a remarkable story of recovery.
Group revenue reached €56,232 million in 2024, up 7.4% compared to 2023. At constant exchange rates, it increased by 9.0%.
Renault Group's operating profit in absolute value reached €4.3 billion, an increase of €146 million compared to 2023, with an operating margin of 7.6% of revenue.
Solid free cash flow of €2.9bn versus guidance at ≥€2.5bn, driven by a strong operational performance. Record Automotive net cash financial position, almost doubled: €7.1bn at December 31, 2024 (+€3.4bn vs December 31, 2023).
The proposed dividend for the financial year 2024 is €2.20 per share, up 19% versus last year.
In 2024, Renault Group sold 2,264,815 vehicles (+1.3% vs. 2023) worldwide. In Europe, the Group progressed twice as well as the market, with sales up 3.5%.
The Dacia brand recorded 676,340 sales worldwide in 2024, (+2.7% vs. 2023) and reached record market shares, especially in Italy (+13.1%), in Morocco (+16.3%), in Spain (+12.4%), in Belgium and in Luxembourg (+15.4%).
The Dacia Sandero was the top-selling car model in Europe in 2024.
However, 2025 has brought challenges. In order to take into account the deterioration of the automotive market trends with an increasing commercial pressure from competitors and the anticipation of the continuation of the retail market decline, Renault Group is now aiming to achieve for FY 2025: an operating margin around 6.5% (versus ≥7% previously) and a free cash-flow between 1.0 and 1.5 billion euros (versus ≥2 billion euros previously).
Leadership Transition
The turnaround was architected by Luca de Meo, who took over as CEO in July 2020 when the company was posting a €7.3 billion loss. His "Renaulution" strategy delivered results few thought possible.
In 2022, it was announced that Renault Group started to witness a financial improvement and de Meo managed to turn around the company in 18 months. Accordingly, better financial results for 2021 were released, they included a 6% increase in revenues and a net profit approaching one billion.
On June 15, 2025, it was announced that he will leave Renault to take over the leadership of the Kering group.
De Meo arrived at the company in the summer of 2020 after it posted a €7.3 billion loss. The Italian exits having seen Renault Group post an operating profit of €4.3 billion in 2024.
"I am leaving a transformed company, poised for the future, to apply my experience to other sectors and embark on new adventures," de Meo shared.
The search for his successor is underway, with early reports indicating that Denis Le Vot, the head of Dacia, is the early frontrunner to replace de Meo, with Maxime Picat, chief operating officer of Stellantis, also under consideration.
XI. The Competitive Landscape: Challenges Ahead
Renault operates in one of the most brutally competitive industries on earth, facing pressure from multiple directions.
European Competition: Stellantis, Volkswagen, and BMW dominate the European market. Chinese manufacturers like BYD are making aggressive inroads with competitively priced EVs. Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory produces vehicles directly targeting Renault's core markets.
Alliance Uncertainty: During 2024/25, Nissan's worldwide retail sales fell 2.8% to 3.35 million units. Over the first half of calendar 2025 (Renault) and fiscal 2025/26 (MMC and Nissan), all three firms reported lower operating profits—negative in Nissan's case.
The €9.5 billion write-down on Renault's Nissan stake illustrates the risk of the cross-shareholding model when a partner struggles.
Regulatory Pressure: In 2025, considering market uncertainties especially due to CO2 emissions regulation impact in Europe (CAFE), Renault Group is aiming to achieve a Group operating margin ≥7% (it includes around 1 point of estimated CAFE negative impact).
European CO2 regulations force manufacturers to sell more EVs regardless of consumer demand, compressing margins on vehicles that already generate lower profits than ICE equivalents.
Porter's Five Forces Analysis:
- Supplier Power: Moderate. Battery suppliers have leverage, but Renault's Horse joint venture with Geely addresses ICE powertrain needs.
- Buyer Power: High. Consumers have abundant choices and low switching costs.
- Competitive Rivalry: Intense. Too many players chasing a stagnating market.
- Threat of New Entrants: Elevated. Chinese manufacturers and tech companies (Apple, if it proceeds) represent existential threats.
- Threat of Substitutes: Growing. Ride-sharing, improved public transit, and changing urban living patterns reduce car ownership.
Hamilton Helmer's 7 Powers Analysis:
- Scale Economies: Limited. Unlike Volkswagen or Toyota, Renault lacks the volume to drive massive unit cost advantages.
- Network Economies: Minimal. Cars don't improve with more users.
- Counter-Positioning: Potential. Dacia's extreme value proposition and Ampere's affordable EV focus could represent counter-positioning against premium competitors.
- Switching Costs: Low for buyers, moderate for dealers.
- Branding: Strong in Europe, particularly France. Weak globally.
- Cornered Resource: The French government stake provides some protection but also constraints.
- Process Power: Emerging. Ampere's manufacturing flexibility and platform sharing could become advantages.
XII. Bull and Bear Cases
The Bull Case
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European EV Leadership: Renault has one of the most competitive affordable EV portfolios in Europe. The Renault 5 and upcoming Renault 4 Electric target the mass market where Tesla doesn't compete. Two consecutive Car of the Year awards validate the strategy.
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Balance Sheet Transformation: Automotive liquidity reserve at the end of December 2024 stood at €18.5 billion versus €17.8 billion on December 31, 2023. Net automotive cash of €7.1 billion provides substantial flexibility.
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Operational Execution: The performance is underpinned by value-centred business fundamentals put in place with the Renaulution plan. Retail customers account for one in every two vehicle sales in Europe. On Renault's five main European markets, the brand's share of the retail sales market rose to 7.1%.
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Dacia Strength: The value brand is thriving. With Sandero as Europe's best-selling car and Bigster launching in 2025, Dacia provides a hedge against premium segment compression.
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Alliance Revival Potential: Nissan confirmed it is working on "several high-value strategic projects" with Renault, calling the alliance a key pillar of its business strategy.
The Bear Case
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Alliance Destruction: The €9.5 billion write-down on Nissan reveals the cost of partnership failure. The synergies that justified the original deal have largely evaporated.
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Chinese Competition: BYD and other Chinese manufacturers are entering Europe with vehicles that match or exceed Renault quality at lower prices. The company has no meaningful presence in China.
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Leadership Vacuum: De Meo's departure removes the architect of the turnaround. Transitions at critical moments carry execution risk.
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Regulatory Compliance Costs: CAFE regulations could cost 1 point of margin in 2025. If EV adoption slows further, fines could escalate.
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Nissan Contagion: If Nissan's situation deteriorates further (it expects a $1.8 billion loss this fiscal year), Renault remains exposed both through its remaining shareholding and shared platform economics.
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No U.S. Presence: Unlike Stellantis or the German manufacturers, Renault generates essentially no revenue in the world's most profitable car market. This limits scale and leaves it dependent on a stagnating European market.
XIII. Key Metrics to Watch
For investors tracking Renault, three KPIs matter most:
1. Operating Margin (Target: Sustained >7%)
This single metric captures Renault's core thesis: that it can generate sustainable profitability in a commoditized industry. The 7.6% achieved in 2024 was the best in years. The 2025 guidance revision to ~6.5% reflects both market headwinds and CAFE compliance costs. Sustained margins above 7% would validate the Renaulution strategy; persistent erosion would signal structural problems.
2. Electrified Vehicle Mix as % of European Sales
Sales of electrified vehicles (electric + hybrid) rose by 20% in Europe in 2024. Full-hybrid vehicles now account for 40% of ICE vehicle sales. This ratio must continue climbing for Renault to meet CAFE requirements without margin-destroying penalties. The target should be 50%+ electrified by 2027.
3. Free Cash Flow Generation
2024: €2.9bn free cash flow. 2025 guidance revised to €1.0-1.5bn. Free cash flow enables dividends, share buybacks, and investment without balance sheet deterioration. A return to €2bn+ free cash flow would signal operational health; persistent weakness would constrain strategic options.
XIV. Myth vs. Reality
Myth: "The Nissan Alliance was Renault's greatest achievement."
Reality: The alliance delivered enormous value in its first 15 years—transforming Nissan from bankruptcy to one of the world's most profitable automakers. But the structural imbalances (43% vs. 15% cross-shareholdings, French government involvement, concentration of power in one executive) created fragilities that destroyed value when trust collapsed. The €9.5 billion write-down in 2025 quantifies the cost.
Myth: "Renault can't compete without Nissan."
Reality: Renault's recent performance came while alliance synergies were diminishing. The Renaulution plan succeeded through internal execution: better products, disciplined pricing, cost reduction. The Dacia brand's success owes nothing to Nissan. In 2024, Renault Group sold 2.264 million cars and light commercial vehicles worldwide, a small (1.3%) increase but nonetheless notable in a year when all major rivals' sales were headed in the opposite direction.
Myth: "EVs will destroy Renault's profitability."
Reality: The company's hybrid-plus-EV strategy provides flexibility. Renault is pursuing a two-pronged electrification strategy delivering the best of both technologies: hybrid and electric. The Renault 5 E-Tech's success suggests affordable EVs can be profitable at scale. Ampere's 40% cost reduction roadmap, if achieved, would make European EV production viable.
XV. Conclusion: The Road Ahead
Renault's 126-year history is a study in resilience amid recurring crisis. A founding brother killed in a race. A founder who died under mysterious circumstances after collaboration accusations. Nationalization. Failed American ventures. The Volvo merger that wasn't. The Nissan deal that remade the industry—then nearly destroyed both companies.
Today, the company stands at another inflection point. The turnaround is real: record profitability, a strong balance sheet, competitive products. But the architect has departed, the alliance is in flux, Chinese competition is intensifying, and regulatory headwinds are strengthening.
De Meo's parting words: "We have a strategic plan ready for the next generation of products. That is why I have decided it is time for me to hand over the baton. I am leaving a transformed company, poised for the future."
Whether that future includes a revitalized Nissan partnership, standalone European success, or something else entirely will depend on decisions made in the next 24 months.
The company that Louis Renault built in a Montmartre garage—that armed France in two world wars, motorized its post-war recovery, and orchestrated one of history's boldest cross-border acquisitions—has survived worse than this. The question isn't whether Renault will exist in 2035. It's what form it will take, and whether investors who buy today will be rewarded for their patience.
For those who believe in European manufacturing, affordable EVs, and the capacity of skilled management to extract value from difficult industries, Renault offers a compelling case. For those who see an aging alliance, a stagnating home market, and relentless competition from China, the risks are equally clear.
As Carlos Ghosn—still watching from Beirut—might observe: the automotive industry rewards those who can execute impossible turnarounds. He proved it once. Now it's someone else's turn.
Key Risk Factors: French government 15% stake creates political constraints; CAFE compliance costs may exceed projections; Nissan partnership uncertainty; Chinese competitive threat; leadership transition risk; European EV adoption pace.
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