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InPost: How a Polish Leaflet Company Built Europe's Parcel Locker Empire
Introduction: The Unlikely Champion
In Kraków, Poland, there exists a peculiar monument to entrepreneurial audacity: a small metal plate, roughly the size of a credit card, bearing a company logo. This unassuming artifact represents one of the most ingenious regulatory workarounds in European business history—and the early seeds of what would become a continental logistics empire.
The company behind that metal plate is InPost. "Can you think of another Polish business that has achieved this kind of success internationally?" asks InPost founder, Rafał Brzoska. "We are doing something special. We're already the third or fourth logistics company in the nine markets in Europe where we are present—and I want to be number one."
During 2024, parcel volume exceeded the one billion mark for the first time ever, reaching 1,091.6 million parcels, representing a 22% increase compared to 2023. The group's out-of-home network expanded to over 82,000 locations, with APMs accounting for 57% of these points.
The numbers tell only part of the story. InPost transformed from a leaflet distribution company into Europe's leading out-of-home e-commerce enablement platform. Now InPost operates 67 logistic centres and 78,000 out-of-home parcel sites, including 43,000 locker machines and 35,000 outlets in shops, located in Poland, UK, France, Italy, Spain and Benelux.
This is a story of founder resilience tested by near-bankruptcy, a private equity rescue that actually worked, COVID-19 as an accelerant, and the audacious vision of becoming "the Polish Spotify"—a brand known by millions of consumers worldwide. It is also a case study in how a company from Central Europe can challenge the established order of global logistics, one parcel locker at a time.
Founder Origins: Rafał Brzoska & The Integer Group (1999-2006)
A Student with €5,000 and a Dream
Brzoska's journey into the world of logistics began in 1999. He was a third-year student at Krakow's University of Economics when he created his first business, Integer, which distributed leaflets on behalf of local companies.
"We were completely unsuccessful in the beginning," he says. "I started the company with €5,000 and pretty soon I was running out of money." Post-communist Poland in the late 1990s was not exactly Silicon Valley. Internet penetration stood at just 5.5% of the population, venture capital was virtually non-existent, and the entrepreneurship culture was still embryonic.
Brzoska created Integer.pl while a student at Krakow University of Economics. Integer.pl distributed bulk mail advertising leaflets for pizza restaurants as well as a range of other businesses.
Yet Brzoska persisted with characteristic grit. "After two years, I graduated and we were the number one in Poland, delivering a billion leaflets a year." This early success caught the attention of venture capitalists. At this point, a venture capital fund offered the graduate €12 million for the business. Brzoska refused. "I wasn't ready to retire," he laughs.
Challenging the State Monopoly
He already had his sights on the next opportunity: creating a rival to the state-owned Polish postal service. This was audacious bordering on foolhardy. In 2006, Rafał decided to compete with Poczta Polska, the state-owned postal monopolist. Poczta Polska was the only operator allowed to deliver letters weighing less than 50 grams.
The workaround that emerged became legendary in Polish business circles. InPost began offering envelopes with small pieces of metal (about the size of a credit card) glued to them to reach the minimum weight. It was a clever regulatory arbitrage—by adding small metal plates to push letters over the 50-gram threshold, InPost could legally compete with the state monopoly at competitive prices.
The company attached small metal plates to each letter/envelope. This puzzled everyone. What were they? The company used the plates, which included the company logo and web address, to make normal letters heavier, as legally only Poczta Polska had the ability to handle mail weighing up to 50 grams without incurring an additional fee. By adding the small metal plates to increase the weight to over 50 grams, InPost was able to provide the same service at competitive prices to the state monopoly.
This early act of creative defiance would define Brzoska's approach to building InPost—finding structural inefficiencies in markets and exploiting them with technology and innovation. The metal plates were crude, but they worked. The postal establishment was not amused.
The Parcel Locker Innovation: Paczkomaty Revolution (2009-2015)
The €30 Million Bet
The first Paczkomat was installed in 2009 next to the company's Krakow headquarters. At around the same time, we installed another 100 machines in four Polish provinces: Lesser Poland, Świętokrzyskie, Lubelskie and Subcarpathian.
The concept was simple but revolutionary: self-service machines for receiving and sending packages, available 24/7. No more waiting at home for couriers who may or may not arrive during their promised window. No more standing in line at the post office. Just walk up, enter your code, and collect your package whenever suits you.
In his interview, Brzoska shared insights into the initial challenges, stating, "We spent around 30 million euros on our first few hundred machines in Poland. After a few months, the average revenue was 500 euros a month. But I had that gut feeling that the market was broken and needed change."
The market's initial reception was decidedly lukewarm. Nobody, apart from the creators of the Paczkomat pick-up terminals, believed that this could be done. The market was sceptical about such an innovative solution. Both the competition and potential customers thought it was a niche product that would not work in the Polish market. However, passion, hard work and dedication paid off and allowed InPost to succeed.
Finding the First Believers
The first large business client that put its trust in us and decided to deliver its parcels through our Paczkomat pick-up terminals was the cosmetics company Avon. One day as many as 70 parcels were sent—which was a staggering amount for us back then.
Those early days required evangelical patience. Each new merchant needed convincing. Each consumer needed education. The concept was foreign—why would someone choose to pick up a package from a machine on the street when couriers had always brought it to their door?
The answer, which would become increasingly clear over the following decade, was threefold: convenience, reliability, and cost. Poles often lived in apartment buildings where missed deliveries meant trips to distant post offices. The lockers were accessible 24/7. And for merchants, delivery to a locker was significantly cheaper than last-mile courier service.
Rapid Expansion and Growing Pains
By 2015, InPost had proven the concept domestically and was ready to expand. In only 3 years, the InPost parcel lockers technology can be found in the following countries: Australia, Chile, Great Britain, Italy, Ireland, Iceland, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine, Estonia, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala.
This international expansion was aggressive—perhaps too aggressive. The company was spreading across multiple continents before it had fully optimized its home market. One year later it debuted on Warsaw Stock Exchange at zł 17 per share to reach zł 330 five years later thanks to Rafał's revolutionary ideas.
But beneath the surface, trouble was brewing. The rapid international expansion was burning cash, and the company's capital structure was becoming increasingly strained.
The Crisis: Near-Bankruptcy & Advent International Rescue (2016-2017)
The Near-Death Experience
By 2016, InPost was in serious trouble. When we acquired InPost in 2017, it was heavily financially stressed. After taking the company private, we worked with management to reorient the business.
When we acquired the company in 2017, it was financially stressed and generating c. €10m in EBITDA. The rapid expansion had taken its toll. Lockers were underperforming in foreign markets where the company lacked the network density and consumer awareness it enjoyed in Poland.
Rapid expansion had taken a financial toll on the company, and the existing locker network was spread too thinly. Working alongside Brzoska, we hatched a plan to refocus on its two strongest markets: Poland and the UK. We then invested heavily to put the consumer at the center of an expanded locker network.
Finding the Right Partner
Brzoska began a long search for capital that could save the company. For a year and a half, he spent three days a week travelling to London, Frankfurt and New York, meeting investors. "I met some funds where there was no chemistry," says Brzoska. "They saw the deal as a pure business opportunity but didn't believe we could win the market. I didn't continue my discussions with those funds." Advent acted fast when given the opportunity to join the process.
Brzoska was looking for more than money; he wanted a partner. When Advent shared the results of the research, the team proved themselves an asset before they had invested a single cent. "I needed support to navigate the many challenges we faced," he says.
The Deal Structure
According to the press release from Advent, they have together with Rafał Brzoska successfully completed the tender offer for Integer.pl S.A. and InPost S.A., following the acquisition of 92.88% of Integer.pl S.A. shares and 92.44% of InPost S.A. shares.
The transaction was financed solely by Advent International through its subsidiary AI Prime Luxembourg, which would allocate approximately PLN 170 million for debt refinancing. The fund would also provide an additional approximately PLN 500 million for the purposes of financing future funding needs.
Following completion of the transaction, Advent will provide a significant capital injection into the Group. This will help to put Integer on a secure financial footing, by resolving short-term liquidity constraints and forthcoming debt repayments, and to support continued growth.
The Strategic Refocus
"We had lockers that were underperforming in other markets," explains Brzoska. The new strategy was brutally simple: focus on Poland where the company was already strong, and the UK where there was a beachhead worth defending. Everything else would be shut down or deprioritized.
As our due diligence intensified, it became obvious that if the company was to move forward, it first had to go back to basics. Working alongside Advent's Portfolio Support Group, an enhanced management team set about driving operational change, including a lean production initiative, followed by a systematic pricing review to optimize the company's unique market position.
Critically, Brzoska stayed on as CEO. The deal was done in 2017. As well as expansion capital and operational expertise, Advent brought a valuable outsider's perspective.
The Flywheel Effect: Building Dominance in Poland (2017-2020)
The PE Playbook Done Right
"This is how Advent helped me the most. They let me run the company without interference. When I had a gut feeling about something, they didn't try and tell me I was wrong. That is a massive thing for a founder."
InPost may be an old-timer in tech years but it still acts like a start-up. This culture isn't for everyone: "Only the strongest team members make it through the first three months, but, after that, they stay forever."
The results were extraordinary. During Advent's ownership, InPost increased growth in parcel and locker volume 8x and ~6x, respectively, from 2016 to 2020.
Together with Advent's Portfolio Support Group, an enhanced management team set about driving operational change, improving depot efficiency by 80% within six months.
The Love Brand Phenomenon
Something remarkable happened as the network grew denser: InPost stopped being just a delivery option and became a cultural phenomenon. Poles began referring to any parcel locker—regardless of operator—as a "paczkomat," the InPost trademark. While InPost, which pioneered the use of parcel lockers in Poland, has trademarked the term, others argue that paczkomat has been absorbed into everyday language and is used by Poles to describe any parcel locker.
In February 2022, the company announced that the InPost Mobile app, which was first launched in 2019, had over 9.3 million active users, making it Poland's second most popular e-commerce app.
The flywheel effect was in full swing: more lockers meant more convenience, which attracted more merchants, which attracted more consumers, which justified more lockers. Our market research showed that customers loved the convenience of getting their parcel at a time that worked for them. As well as being good for the customer, it was great for the environment. The InPost solution enabled hundreds of parcels to be dropped at one location, resulting in a 98% increase in carbon efficiency in last mile delivery.
Financial Transformation
When we acquired the company in 2017, it was financially stressed and generating c. €10m in EBITDA, but in 2020 it delivered >€215m in Adj. EBITDA. That's a more than 20x improvement in just three years—a transformation that would attract attention from investors worldwide.
COVID Acceleration & The Historic IPO (2020-2021)
Pandemic as Accelerant
"The company experienced two years' worth of adoption in the first few months of lockdown. "When Covid arrived, we experienced an immense acceleration," he says.
Then, when Covid-19 hit, the team quickly advertised the safety virtues of InPost's system. It partnered with retailers to get goods to consumers quickly and safely during the pandemic, leading consumers to flock to the business.
When Covid-19 hit, Brzoska and the team quickly turned the crisis into an opportunity by launching an advertising campaign that extolled the safety virtues of InPost's system. As bricks-and-mortar retail shut down during the lockdowns, e-commerce rapidly accelerated, putting further pressure on delivery logistics. InPost leveraged its extensive dataset and advanced analytics capabilities to enhance its logistics network and partnered with retailers to offer a ready-made solution to help get goods to consumers quickly and safely.
The contactless nature of locker delivery—no need to interact with a courier, no need to sign for packages—was suddenly a major selling point in a world terrified of viral transmission.
Europe's Largest Tech IPO
"That's when we began the hard work to get ready for IPO."
InPost SA went public in January 2021 on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange after its shareholders raised 2.8 billion euros as an online shopping boom, largely caused by pandemic lockdowns, increased demand for its automated parcel lockers. As a result, InPost's shares jumped 19%, valuing the company at 9.5 billion euros ($11.55 billion).
Based on the offer price, the implied market capitalization of the Company is EUR 8 billion. The total value of the offering amounts to EUR 3.2 billion (including the exercise of the over-allotment option), which represents the largest ever European Tech IPO, the largest ever CEE IPO, the largest European Private Equity IPO since 2015 and the largest Amsterdam IPO since 2016.
InPost was listed through the admission to trading of 500 million shares, with the issue price set at €16.00 per share. The company's market capitalisation was €8.0 billion on the day of listing.
Why Amsterdam?
The choice of Amsterdam over Warsaw was deliberate—a signal that InPost saw itself as a pan-European company, not merely a Polish one. InPost chose to make its debut in Amsterdam due to its concentration of technology-focused investors.
Rafal Brzoska, Chief Executive Officer of InPost, said: "We are incredibly proud to complete the listing of InPost on Euronext Amsterdam. Today marks an important milestone in achieving our vision for InPost to become Europe's leading out-of-home automated solution for e-commerce."
The Mondial Relay Acquisition: Going Pan-European (2021)
The Strategic Rationale
With fresh capital from the IPO, Brzoska moved quickly to execute on his pan-European vision. In July 2021, InPost acquired Mondial Relay, a logistics company from France, for a reported EUR 516 million.
InPost - a leader among e-commerce delivery platforms in Europe - has successfully completed the acquisition of Mondial Relay, a leading French 'out-of-home' delivery company, in an agreement with Otto Group. The transaction was worth EUR 513 million.
From the very beginning, Rafał's ambition has been to go far beyond the borders of his home country, creating the biggest Polish business success story on the European stage. In July 2021, InPost acquired French logistics giant Mondial Relay for €513 million, the largest and most significant Polish private investment abroad, allowing the InPost Group to enter the French, Iberian and Benelux markets.
The Hybrid Model: APMs Meet PUDOs
Mondial Relay's model was different from InPost's Polish approach. Rather than automated parcel machines, Mondial Relay relied primarily on pick-up and drop-off points (PUDOs)—essentially local shops that agreed to accept and hold parcels for customers.
Mondial Relay has been able to continuously strengthen its market position over the last few years, thus in the 2019/20 financial year, a volume increase of 51 percent year-over-year was realized, and over 140 million shipments were completed in the past twelve months. In France, the B2C and C2C parcel logistics specialist operates a comprehensive nationwide and market-leading network of more than 10,500 pick-up and drop-off stations.
InPost and Mondial Relay together delivered more than 440 million parcels in 2020, supported by a network of around 28,000 APM and PUDO point locations. Mondial Relay, with its extensive network of PUDO outlets and extensive pan-European commercial relationships, will allow InPost to accelerate its international expansion plans.
InPost indicates that the transaction will allow it to significantly expand the market and accelerate its international development strategy, enter the attractive markets of France, the Benelux countries and the Iberian Peninsula, as well as increase EBITDA by approx. €100-150 million in the medium term.
The UK Conquest: Menzies & Yodel Acquisitions (2023-2025)
Building the UK Beachhead
The UK market represented both InPost's biggest opportunity and biggest challenge outside Poland. It was a large, sophisticated e-commerce market with well-established incumbents—Royal Mail, Evri (formerly Hermes), and an army of traditional couriers.
Menzies' logistics capabilities and operational synergies enabled InPost to achieve a 156% increase YoY in the UK parcel volume in H1 2024. Moreover, Menzies' enhanced service enabled InPost to improve its quality KPIs.
"This transaction follows the successful acquisition of Menzies Distribution in October 2024, which gave InPost full control over its entire logistics process in the UK.
The Yodel Takeover
In April 2025, InPost made its boldest UK move yet. InPost, a European leader in cutting-edge logistics for e-commerce, takes a bold leap forward in the UK market. With the acquisition of Yodel—one of the UK's largest parcel delivery companies—InPost steps into the position of third-largest agnostic logistics player in the country.
The JLL acquisition was structured as a debt-to-equity conversion, with InPost converting its existing loan to JLL into equity. Until the transaction date, InPost had provided JLL with financing amounting to ÂŁ106 million in the form of convertible loan notes.
"This acquisition marks a pivotal milestone in InPost's journey to revolutionise the UK delivery market as well as the Group pan-European presence. We have just fast-forwarded 5 years of organic expansion in the UK and it is a clear reflection of our long-term commitment to this market, a market where we see enormous opportunity for growth."
The acquisition will significantly accelerate InPost's UK expansion. The Group estimates its annual parcel volume in the UK will grow to around 300 million, while its seller base will instantly expand to over 700 e-commerce shops, giving it an estimated 8% market share.
However, the Yodel acquisition has not been without complications. However, the company appears to have been acquired without clean title, a high court order was put in place in May 2025, which paused the takeover, until a trial over ownership of the company takes place. During this period, Inpost are unable to integrate the business, or make any material changes spanning investment, leadership, restructuring and changes to the workforce.
The Modern Era: Scale, AI & Network Effects (2022-Present)
One Billion Parcels
During 2024, parcel volume exceeded the one billion mark for the first time ever, reaching 1,091.6 million parcels, which represents a 22% increase compared to FY 2023.
Key financial and operational highlights: Parcel Volume: 1.1 billion, a YoY increase of 22%, with growth in both Poland (+20%) and international markets (+26%) - Revenue: EUR 2542.9 million, an increase of 23.5% YoY - Adjusted EBITDA: EUR 847.6 million, up 33.5% YoY, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of +33.3%.
Parcel locker network provider InPost has published its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, revealing a 34% year-on-year growth in parcel volumes to 351.5 million, led by the UK market.
AI-Driven Optimization
"We're using AI to forecast the volume on a live basis to properly set up all the logistic elements like vans and pick-up trucks. Optimizing that element gave us 22 million euros in savings just last year," Brzoska explained.
Balancing AI integration with practical applications remains crucial. "Smartly using that technology in certain points like customer care and digitalization of paper documents is essential. But let's not over-engineer things," Brzoska advised.
The Q3 2025 Performance
InPost Group delivered 351.5 million parcels in Q3 2025, marking a 34% YoY increase and significantly outpacing the general e-commerce market growth in all its geographies. The UK led YoY growth, followed by the Eurozone and Poland.
The Group deployed a record number of lockers (12,900 machines deployed LTM). The out-of-home network expanded to nearly 90,000 points, including almost 57,000 APMs—reinforcing InPost leadership position across Poland, France, and the UK.
"We are proud to deliver another record-breaking quarter, demonstrating the strength and scalability of InPost's unique out-of-home delivery platform across Europe. Our robust volume and revenue growth—outpacing the market in every geography—reflect the trust of millions of consumers and the commitment of our talented team."
"In Poland, our 'love brand' status continues to drive engagement and profitability, while in Eurozone and the UK, our expanding network and strategic integrations are fuelling rapid adoption of lockers and out-of-home solutions."
Playbook: Business & Strategic Lessons
Founder Resilience
The InPost story is fundamentally a tale of founder perseverance. Rafał Brzoska's journey from founding the Integer Group to creating InPost, a logistics giant managing over 20,000 parcel machines in Poland and over 33,000 machines in Europe, is a testament to innovation and resilience. Despite early setbacks, Brzoska's vision for revolutionizing parcel delivery through automated lockers has significantly shaped the e-Commerce landscape.
The near-bankruptcy episode in 2016-2017 would have ended many entrepreneurial stories. Instead, it became a crucible that forged a stronger company and a more disciplined strategy.
The Flywheel Model
InPost's dominance in Poland illustrates the power of network effects in logistics:
- More lockers → better coverage → more consumer convenience
- More convenience → higher consumer preference → more merchant adoption
- More merchants → more volume → better economics per locker
- Better economics → more investment in lockers → repeat
The InPost solution enabled hundreds of parcels to be dropped at one location, resulting in a 98% increase in carbon efficiency in last mile delivery. However, there was a problem: for it to work well, the APMs needed to be within easy walking distance of users, and, at the time, the network was spread too thinly.
PE Partnership Done Right
The Advent International relationship stands as a model for founder-friendly private equity. "Advent trusted me to make the right calls. Some funds stifle their management, but Advent gave me the tools and let me get on with the job of executing the plan. It was an intensive partnership with some robust discussions, but it was a true partnership and I couldn't have got to where I am so quickly without them."
On the Advent side, by partnering with an exceptional CEO and founder, we were able to unlock growth. We have also deepened our knowledge and understanding of the wider logistics sub-sector, ultimately working with other logistics businesses, such as Evri, and augmenting our existing strengths in payments and e-commerce. "We believed that with the right focus and resources, InPost, under the leadership of an exceptional entrepreneur like Rafał, had the potential to disrupt not only Poland but also across Europe in an industry ripe for innovation."
Sustainability as Strategy
Parcel lockers reduce emissions from last-mile delivery fleets. An analysis of InPost's Polish network found that a single machine saves as much carbon dioxide in one day as twelve 100-year-old trees in a whole year. InPost now runs close to 40,000 machines and it aims to be completely carbon neutral by 2040.
InPost Group's decarbonisation strategy is an integral addition to its business strategy. The carbon footprint of InPost Parcel Lockers deliveries generates up to 98% less CO2 emissions over the last mile compared to InPost home delivery.
Porter's Five Forces & Hamilton's 7 Powers Analysis
Porter's Five Forces
1. Threat of New Entrants: MODERATE-LOW
The parcel locker business requires substantial capital investment for network buildout. According to a recent report from Fortune Business Insights, the global parcel locker market is expected to grow from US$1.012bn in 2024 to US$2.552bn in 2032, a CAGR of 12.3%.
However, established postal operators pose a credible threat. Geopost (DPD) grew its network 63% to 31,000 lockers in 2024. DHL expanded its global locker footprint by ~50% to 36,000 locations in the same year.
2. Bargaining Power of Suppliers: LOW-MODERATE
InPost has strategically invested in locker manufacturing capabilities. Major players in the global smart parcel locker market include companies such as Quadient, InPost, KEBA, Ricoh Group, and Pitney Bowes Inc. Multiple hardware suppliers globally provide competitive options.
3. Bargaining Power of Buyers: MODERATE
Merchants have alternatives (traditional couriers, Amazon, national postal services). However, consumer preference increasingly drives merchant choice. In 2023, 82 percent of online customers in Poland chose delivery to the parcel machine, such as InPost.
4. Threat of Substitutes: MODERATE
Traditional door-to-door delivery remains dominant in many markets. Home delivery remains the most preferred shipping option for 62% of respondents. But the preference for home delivery has dropped 9% over the past year as the use of out-of-home shipping methods becomes more common.
Based on customer surveys conducted by McKinsey, the aggregated OOH volume in Germany, France, Poland, and Italy is expected to grow by 1.3 billion parcels up to 2027, while home deliveries are expected to grow by only 200 million parcels over the same period.
5. Competitive Rivalry: HIGH
The Europe Out Of Home (OOH) Delivery Market is expected to reach USD 7 billion in 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 15.03% to reach USD 14.12 billion by 2030. DHL Group, DSV, Geopost, InPost and GLS Group are the major companies operating in this market.
Poland, like Germany, already has a clear market leader in the shape of InPost. However, InPost does have a host of competitors with their own parcel locker networks, including Orlen Paczka, Allegro, DHL, DPD and others.
Hamilton's 7 Powers Analysis
1. Scale Economies: STRONG âś“
Each additional locker in a dense network reduces per-parcel cost. The main economic driver for OOH is consolidating deliveries into fewer delivery stops and addresses visited. As long as mail remains a product delivered to the doorstep, joint delivery networks see almost no benefit from reducing stops by moving parcels to lockers.
2. Network Effects: VERY STRONG âś“âś“
Consumer-side: More lockers → more convenience → more users. Merchant-side: More users → more merchants want InPost integration. By 2023, Poland had about 1.08 parcel lockers per 1,000 people, the highest density in Europe. That equated to roughly 47,000 lockers in total, and Polish shoppers have made lockers their preferred delivery method.
3. Counter-Positioning: STRONG âś“
Traditional carriers (DHL, FedEx, UPS) built for door-to-door delivery; their infrastructure and workforce are optimized for a different model. "The really pragmatic reason for this is that after Deutsche Post DHL and Keba effectively invented the smart parcel locker, they shrouded it in a world of patents. So there is a whole portfolio of fairly broad patents owned by DHL that have protected them from competitors."
4. Switching Costs: MODERATE
Consumer app engagement creates stickiness. InPost APM users surpassed 20 million (+6% year-on-year), and app users exceeded 15 million (+17% YoY).
5. Branding: STRONG âś“ (in Poland)
According to the Gemius report (September 2025), 87% of respondents choose InPost lockers most often—underscoring InPost's position as Poland's most trusted delivery brand.
Bull & Bear Case Analysis
The Bull Case
1. Secular Shift to Out-of-Home Delivery
Parcel lockers have surged to second place as a preferred delivery option. Parcel lockers overtook parcel shops to become the second most preferred delivery method, after home delivery.
The Europe Out Of Home (OOH) Delivery Market is expected to reach USD 7 billion in 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 15.03% to reach USD 14.12 billion by 2030.
2. Poland Dominance as Cash Engine
The strength of our Polish business was primarily reflected in FCF generation. FCF amounted to PLN 1,596.1 million for 2024 (up by 32.5% YoY), and FCF conversion reached 53% (vs 49% a year ago).
3. UK Transformation Potential
UK – Exceptional Growth Driven by Strategic Acquisitions. Parcel volumes in the UK more than tripled YoY, and revenue increased fourfold, reflecting consolidation of Menzies and Yodel. The APM network expanded to over 12,000 machines, further strengthening the gap vs competition and securing #1 APM network position in the UK.
The Bear Case
1. Competitive Intensity Rising
Geopost (DPD) grew its network 63% to 31,000 lockers in 2024. DHL expanded its global locker footprint by ~50% to 36,000 locations in the same year. InPost added 11,500+ APMs in 2024.
2. Integration Risks in UK
The Yodel acquisition faces legal challenges. The company appears to have been acquired without clean title, a high court order was put in place in May 2025, which paused the takeover, until a trial over ownership takes place.
3. Valuation Pressure
InPost lowered its full-year EBITDA growth guidance to the mid-teens, from a previous 20–25%, citing additional investments in quality improvements during the U.K. peak season. This will "likely trigger FY25E consensus EBITDA downgrades of c.4%."
Key Performance Indicators to Watch
For investors tracking InPost's ongoing performance, three metrics stand out as most critical:
1. Parcel Volume Growth vs. E-commerce Market Growth
InPost's value proposition depends on growing faster than the overall e-commerce market. "In 2024, the InPost Group set a new record, delivering over 1.1 billion parcels—an increase of 22% compared to 2023," commented Rafał Brzoska.
If InPost can consistently outgrow the market, it validates both the structural shift to OOH delivery and the company's competitive positioning. Any quarter where InPost grows slower than underlying e-commerce growth would be a significant warning sign.
2. APM Network Expansion & Utilization
In 2024, it deployed a record number of APMs, adding over 11,500 machines, and ending the year with 46,977 APM locations (+33% YoY).
The network effect only works if lockers are both numerous and well-utilized. Track both the absolute number of APMs deployed and, where disclosed, metrics around utilization per machine.
3. International EBITDA Margins
Poland is highly profitable. The key question is whether InPost can replicate that profitability internationally. Adjusted EBITDA reached PLN 2,993.6 million (up by 21.0% YoY). This translates into a 46.2% margin, which is flat compared to the previous year.
Watch particularly the UK segment margins as Yodel integration progresses.
Conclusion: The European Logistics Champion
InPost's journey from a student's leaflet distribution business to Europe's parcel locker champion represents one of the great entrepreneurial stories to emerge from Central Europe. "In the European markets where we are present, we are already the third largest B2C e-commerce provider."
The company faces genuine challenges—intensifying competition, integration complexity, and the perpetual pressure to demonstrate that its Polish success can be replicated across diverse European markets. The Yodel legal situation adds near-term uncertainty.
Yet the structural tailwinds remain powerful. E-commerce continues to grow. Consumer preference is shifting toward out-of-home delivery. Sustainability concerns favor consolidated deliveries. And InPost has built competitive advantages—network density, brand recognition, operational excellence—that will be difficult to replicate.
"There is no bravado in this statement, only vindication. Brzoska, 47, has fought hard to get his parcel locker network to where it is today. Set up in 2006, InPost's early years saw Brzoska battle naysayers and push against a state-owned monopoly, all while dealing with market volatility."
The question now is whether InPost can complete its transformation from Polish champion to pan-European logistics infrastructure. The metal plates that once helped Brzoska circumvent postal regulations have given way to a sophisticated network of 90,000 out-of-home delivery points. The ambition remains the same: to change how Europe receives its packages, one locker at a time.
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