Carlsberg: The Foundation-Owned Global Brewer

A 178-Year Odyssey from Copenhagen Hill to Global Beverages Empire

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I. Introduction & Episode Roadmap

On a sweltering summer day in 1845, a 33-year-old Danish brewer embarked on an audacious journey from Copenhagen to Munich. In his luggage was nothing of apparent value—just a customized hat box containing two pots of yeast. What J.C. Jacobsen carried across Europe that summer, stopping repeatedly to douse his precious cargo with cold water, would revolutionize beer production forever. The yeast survived the trip. So did Jacobsen's obsessive vision.

Carlsberg is the flagship beer brand in Carlsberg Group's portfolio of 155 brands. It has a global distribution to 140 markets. But what distinguishes this Danish giant from its peers isn't the beer—it's the structure. The Carlsberg Foundation holds a significant ownership stake in Carlsberg A/S, comprising approximately 29% of the share capital and 76% of the voting rights as of 2025, which provides it with effective control over the brewery.

This makes Carlsberg something unique in the beverage industry: The Carlsberg Foundation was established in 1876 by brewer J.C. Jacobsen and is the world's oldest enterprise foundation with responsibility for an industrial undertaking. Where AB InBev answers to short-term quarterly pressures and Heineken navigates family dynamics, Carlsberg operates under the stewardship of scientists—its foundation board is appointed in consultation with the Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters.

The central tension throughout Carlsberg's nearly two-century history remains consistent: How does a foundation-owned company, with philanthropic obligations and a mandate to advance science, compete in one of the world's most consolidating, capital-intensive industries? How does it balance the vision of a 19th-century idealist against the brutal economics of 21st-century global brewing?

The answers illuminate a story of scientific breakthroughs freely shared with competitors, of father-son feuds that shaped corporate governance, of transformational acquisitions that created—then destroyed—a Russian empire, and of a strategic pivot into soft drinks that may define the company's next chapter.

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II. Founding: J.C. Jacobsen & The Birth of Industrial Brewing (1811-1876)

The Brewer's Son Becomes a Revolutionary

Jacob Christian Jacobsen (2 September 1811 – 30 April 1887) was a Danish industrialist and philanthropist best known for founding the brewery Carlsberg. He was, quite literally, born into beer. His father operated a small Copenhagen brewery, and upon his death in 1835, the 24-year-old Jacobsen inherited the trade. But he would not inherit his father's methods.

He had no formal academic or scientific training (although he had attended some lectures by Hans Christian Ørsted). Ørsted, the physicist who discovered electromagnetism, had a profound influence on young Jacobsen. In the 1840s, he had come to realise that production of beer, which had until then been done in numerous small breweries, now had to be based on the scientific method in order to be industrialized.

This insight—that science could transform a craft into an industry—would become Jacobsen's obsession and Carlsberg's competitive advantage for generations.

The Munich Expedition

The summer of 1845 marked Jacobsen's pivotal journey. In 1845 he traveled to the Zum Späten brewery in Munich, where he was introduced to bottom-fermenting yeast. Gabriel Sedlmayr's Spaten brewery represented the cutting edge of Bavarian brewing techniques. Jacobsen wasn't just visiting—he was studying, learning, and ultimately acquiring.

The journey home became the stuff of brewing legend. Jacobsen traveled by stagecoach across hundreds of miles, carrying two pots of precious Spaten yeast in a specially designed hat box. The yeast required constant cooling to survive—so Jacobsen stopped repeatedly along the route, dousing the containers with cold water. This wasn't mere cargo transport; it was an act of scientific devotion.

Starting in 1847, he established his brewery Carlsberg in Valby on the outskirts of Copenhagen, on a site where it has remained since. He named the brewery after his son, Carl Jacobsen.

The Name and the Hill

J.C. Jacobsen named his brewery by combining the name of his five-year-old son, "Carl", with the Danish word "bjerg", a tongue-in-cheek reference to where it all started, the Valby Hill in Copenhagen. The hill provided more than a clever name—it offered the cold storage caves essential for bottom-fermented lager production before mechanical refrigeration.

The first brew was finished on 10 November 1847, and the export of Carlsberg beer began in 1868 with the export of one barrel to Edinburgh, Scotland.

The Scientific Revolution in Beer

While competitors relied on tradition and guesswork, Jacobsen invested in understanding. J. C. Jacobsen's mantra was to make great beer regardless of immediate profit. Others brewers often complained he was keeping his prices so low that he was destroying the market. J. C. Jacobsen would reply that it was his job to brew as well and as cheaply as possible - adding that he would keep doing this even if he didn't make any money at all.

This wasn't altruism—it was strategy. By driving down prices while maintaining quality, Jacobsen eliminated weaker competitors and built brand loyalty among consumers who could now afford consistent, quality beer.

Being extremely vigorous in the pursuit of producing high quality beer, he founded the Carlsberg Laboratory in 1875. This was the world's first industrial research laboratory—a radical concept when most breweries still considered brewing an art rather than a science.

The laboratory's establishment represented something unprecedented: a commercial enterprise funding pure scientific research. J.C. became a prominent figure in the research science and innovation environments by starting the first industrial research laboratory in 1875, whilst freely sharing discoveries and yeast to anyone who needed it, including competing brewers.

This open-source approach to scientific discovery distinguished Carlsberg from every competitor. Where modern companies jealously guard intellectual property, Jacobsen shared freely. The reasoning was partly philosophical—he believed scientific knowledge belonged to humanity—and partly practical. A rising tide of quality beer would lift all brewers, including Carlsberg.

The Discovery That Changed Everything

In 1883, Emil Chr. Hansen, head of the physiology department of the Carlsberg Research Laboratory, made a ground-breaking discovery that would revolutionize the brewing industry. Hansen discovered that "bad beer" was not only a result of bacterial infection, as world famous scientist Louis Pasteur had otherwise assumed. Instead, Emil found that a certain amount of wild yeast in the pitching yeast made the 'beer sickness' break forth. He then worked to isolate a single cell of good yeast and propagated it into a pure culture.

Hansen's method on how to purify yeast made it possible to make quality beer from every brew and the new 'Saccharomyces Carlsbergensis' was used for the first time, and with great success, on a production scale in November 1883.

Today, most lager beers in the world originate from that pure yeast discovery, including major international brands. "Without it, we wouldn't have the type of beer that is now 90 percent of the world's market", says Britain's leading Beer Historian Martyn Cornell.

The impact cannot be overstated: before Hansen's discovery, brewing was unpredictable. Batches would spoil randomly, quality varied wildly, and brewers had limited understanding of why. After 1883, brewing became an industrial science—consistent, reliable, scalable. And Carlsberg gave this discovery away freely, transforming the entire global industry.

The Carlsberg Laboratory also developed the concept of pH and made advances in protein chemistry. Scientists who worked at the Carlsberg Laboratory included SPL Sørensen, who developed the concept of pH, Johan Kjeldahl, who devised the analytical principle used for centuries to determine proteins.

The pH scale, now fundamental to chemistry, biology, and countless industries, was invented at a beer laboratory. This speaks to Jacobsen's vision: he didn't just want to make better beer—he wanted to understand the fundamental science underlying fermentation.

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III. The Family Feud & Foundation Creation (1876-1906)

A Father's Impossible Standards

Carl Christian Hillmann Jacobsen was born March 2, 1842 as the only child of J.C. and Laura Jacobsen. From 1866, he conducted a four year study trip to the leading breweries in France, Germany, Austria, England and Scotland, where he became familiar with top-fermented British beers. Upon his return, his father trusted him with a brewery to run in an annex, thinking he could produce Ale, Porter and Lager. However, he underestimated his son's desire to produce better beer, and soon, they were in competition.

The conflict that followed would shape Carlsberg's governance for generations. J.C. Jacobsen was a perfectionist obsessed with quality and process. Carl was equally talented but impatient, willing to take shortcuts that horrified his father.

Carl is selling his beer under the Carlsberg name (he calls it New Carlsberg), and much to his father's disapproval, Carl produces a beer with a shorter storage time. Sales at Carl's brewery surpass that of his father's. This sparks a family feud between father and son. J.C. Jacobsen has his lawyers evict Carl from the Annex and legally attempts to limit his production capacity.

The irony was exquisite: J.C. had named the brewery after his son, yet now found himself in legal battle against that same son over the right to use the name. Carl's New Carlsberg was outselling his father's Old Carlsberg. The student had surpassed the master—but in a way the master couldn't accept.

The Foundation as Insurance

In 1876, Jacobsen founded the Carlsberg Foundation (Carlsbergfondet) which he endowed with a controlling stake in Carlsberg, due to family tensions. A bitter conflict with his son Carl led to the latter's foundation of the Ny Carlsberg (New Carlsberg) Brewery 1882.

In 1876, J.C. Jacobsen established the Carlsberg Foundation, run by trustees from the Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters, which managed the Carlsberg Laboratory as well as supporting scientific research within the fields of natural sciences, mathematics, philosophy, the humanities and social sciences in Denmark.

This wasn't just philanthropy—it was corporate succession planning driven by family dysfunction. J.C. Jacobsen couldn't trust his son with his life's work. Rather than risk Carl running Carlsberg into the ground (in the father's view), Jacobsen entrusted control to scientists. The foundation structure ensured that neither Carl nor any future descendant could gain unfettered control of the brewery.

Because of a conflict with his son Carl, Jacobsen's brewery was left to the Foundation upon his death in 1887.

Resolution and Legacy

In 1881, Carl is officially allowed to set up his own brewery by the name of New Carlsberg, and he does so in 1882, while his father's enterprise at the same occasion changed its name to Old Carlsberg. Father and son eventually reconcile in October 1886, just before J.C. Jacobsen's death in 1887. Carl eventually helped lead a unified Carlsberg to great multinational endeavors.

The reconciliation came just months before J.C.'s death—a deathbed peace after a decade of bitter conflict. But the foundation structure remained, encoding distrust into corporate governance. The scientists would remain in control.

Carl proved to be more than a worthy successor in some respects. Though often preoccupied with his cultural interests, Jacobsen was a shrewd and visionary businessman and initiated the transition of the brewery Carlsberg from a local Copenhagen brewery to the multinational conglomerate that it is today.

Carl was a an eager cultural enthusiast known for his interest in Greek and classical art. His engagement led to the inauguration of the Ny Carlsberg Glyptotek in 1897, to which he donated his entire, rather substantial antique art collection. The museum is still regarded as one of the most important Danish art museums.

He paid for the restoration of several churches and public buildings and was also behind the 1913 sculpture The Little Mermaid. The iconic Copenhagen statue that draws millions of tourists annually exists because of a beer magnate's cultural patronage.

In 1906, New and Old Carlsberg were officially reunited under the Carlsberg Foundation and Carl became the first managing director of Carlsberg Breweries. The family feud that had created two competing breweries was finally resolved, though Carl died in 1914. The foundation ownership—born of familial distrust—would prove remarkably durable, surviving world wars, global consolidation, and competitive pressures that destroyed or transformed most peer companies.

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IV. Internationalization & The Tuborg Merger (1906-1990s)

From Copenhagen to the World

The first overseas license for brewing was given to the Photos Photiades Breweries, and in 1966 Carlsberg beer was brewed for the first time outside Denmark at the Photiades breweries in Cyprus. The first brewery to be built outside Denmark was in Blantyre, Malawi in 1968.

The international expansion proceeded methodically. Licensing deals first, testing markets and building brand awareness with minimal capital risk. Where demand proved robust, Carlsberg would invest in owned production capacity.

The Tuborg Merger

Carlsberg merged with Tuborg Breweries in 1970 (but backdated to 1969) forming the "De forenede Bryggerier" (United Breweries AS).

In 1970, Carlsberg Breweries merged with the Tuborg Breweries to become The United Breweries A/S. At the time of the merger, it was determined in the charter that the Carlsberg Foundation should own at least 51% of the share capital of The United Breweries A/S.

The Tuborg merger doubled Carlsberg's domestic scale and added another strong brand to its portfolio. Tuborg, positioned slightly more mainstream than Carlsberg, allowed brand segmentation. The combined company now had options—premium Carlsberg for discerning drinkers, accessible Tuborg for everyday consumption.

1987: The United Breweries A/S changes its name to Carlsberg A/S. 1991: The Tuborg Foundation is merged with the Carlsberg Foundation.

Charter Evolution

As Carlsberg grew internationally, the foundation's charter required adaptation. The original requirement that the foundation own at least 51% of share capital became constraining as the company needed equity for acquisitions.

In 2013, the charter was amended such that the Carlsberg Foundation was now only obliged to own a shareholding that provides entitlement to at least 51% of the voting rights in Carlsberg A/S.

This amendment was made to give Carlsberg A/S significantly improved financial resources through share issues while allowing the Carlsberg Foundation to retain the same controlling interest in Carlsberg A/S as before.

This was clever financial engineering: through dual-class share structures, the foundation could maintain voting control while reducing its economic ownership, freeing up capital for expansion while preserving governance.

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V. The Baltic & Eastern European Expansion (1990s-2000s)

Betting on the Post-Soviet Consumer

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 created one of history's largest consumer market openings. Hundreds of millions of people, previously trapped in command economies with limited consumer choice, suddenly wanted Western products—including Western beer.

Carlsberg, through its joint venture Baltic Beverages Holding (BBH) with Scottish & Newcastle, was positioned to capitalize. The BBH business is widely regarded as the jewel in the crown. It encompasses 19 breweries, 10 in Russia, four in the Baltic countries, three in the Ukraine, one in Kazakhstan and one in Uzbekistan and has the Baltika brand.

The Baltika brand became Russia's dominant beer—affordable, widely available, and carrying just enough Western association to appeal to aspirational consumers. At its peak, Baltika held roughly 27% of the Russian beer market, making Russia one of Carlsberg's most important and profitable markets globally.

Its key brand, Baltika, is the third largest beer brand in Europe.

The strategic logic was compelling: developed Western markets were mature, with minimal growth potential. Eastern Europe offered volume growth at attractive margins. And Carlsberg, through BBH, had first-mover advantages that would prove difficult for competitors to overcome.

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VI. Inflection Point #1: The Scottish & Newcastle Acquisition (2008)

The Deal

In October 2007, Carlsberg Group and Heineken announced a joint approach to acquire Scottish & Newcastle, initially valued at around £7.4 billion, which the company rejected as undervaluing its assets. The bid escalated into a hostile takeover attempt, with multiple rejections of improved offers in early 2008, before the consortium raised its proposal to 800 pence per share, valuing the equity at £7.8 billion.

On 17 January 2008, S&N announced that it was now in formal discussions with the consortium, following a revised proposal to purchase the business for £8 per share. On 25 January 2008, following limited due diligence and discussions with S&N, the consortium announced a formal cash offer for the entire S&N business at £8 per share. This offer had the full support of the S&N Board and was recommended to shareholders.

The company was listed on the London Stock Exchange until it was acquired by Heineken and Carlsberg in 2008 and its assets split between them.

The Split

The deal means the Danish brewer gets all of the Baltic Beverage Holdings (BBH), which was a joint venture with S&N, plus Kronenbourg, the French lager brand and brewery and S&N's Greek, Chinese and Vietnamese interests. The Dutch brewing giant acquires S&N's UK brewing interest which includes brands such as Foster's (in Europe), Strongbow cider, John Smith's Bitter and Newcastle Brown Ale along with operations in Portugal, Ireland, Finland, Belgium, US and Indian operations.

Carlsberg and Heineken are splitting the costs of the deal 54-46 percent.

Strategic Significance

Carlsberg president and CEO Jorgen Buhl Rasmussen said: "This is a transformational transaction for Carlsberg. In a single step we have created the world's fastest-growing global brewer. We now have full control of our destiny in Russia and other BBH territories and I am excited about the new opportunities this will present to us."

The acquisition delivered several strategic objectives simultaneously:

1. Full control of BBH: Previously a 50/50 joint venture, Carlsberg now owned 100% of the crown jewel Eastern European business
2. Kronenbourg: France's leading beer brand, adding Western European scale
3. Asian platform: Vietnamese and Chinese operations providing growth diversification
4. Geographic transformation: Carlsberg shifted from a Nordic-focused brewer to a truly global player

The deal represented Carlsberg's most aggressive move in its history—transformational M&A financed partly through debt. For a foundation-owned company historically cautious about financial leverage, this was a significant strategic pivot.

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VII. Inflection Point #2: The Russian Saga & Exit (2008-2024)

Building a Russian Giant

Russia following the S&N acquisition represented roughly one-quarter of Carlsberg's operating profit. The Baltika brand dominated the market, and Russian consumers, despite economic volatility, showed consistent appetite for beer. The number two brewer in Russia, with a market share of perhaps 27 percent, has eight breweries and employs more than 8,000 people. It produced an estimated 21 million hl beer in 2023.

But political risk always loomed. Russia's regulatory environment grew increasingly hostile to alcohol consumption, with advertising restrictions, minimum pricing rules, and health campaigns designed to address the country's significant alcoholism problems. Beer volumes declined industry-wide through much of the 2010s.

The 2022 Decision

Carlsberg, like many other Western firms, had announced in March 2022 that it would leave Russia, where it employed 8,400 people, following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

The decision was morally straightforward but operationally complex. Carlsberg couldn't simply abandon 8,400 employees. It couldn't easily sell—Russian authorities had imposed rules making Western exits extraordinarily difficult. And it couldn't continue operating without reputational damage in Western markets.

State Seizure

The sale will put an end to a period of uncertainty since a presidential decree in July 2023 temporarily transferred the control of Baltika Breweries to the Russian state.

The company was compelled to terminate licensing agreements with Baltika, severing rights to Carlsberg's brands in Russia. The situation culminated in CEO Aarup-Andersen publicly accusing the Russian authorities of "stealing" their business after the seizure.

The accusation of theft was unprecedented diplomatic language from a corporate CEO. But Aarup-Andersen, barely a year into his role, chose confrontation over diplomacy. The Russian government had seized Carlsberg's assets, installed government-appointed management, and continued operating the breweries producing beer under Carlsberg's terminated brand licenses.

In 2023, Baltika's revenue was nearly RUB 110 billion (USD 1.1 billion) and its gross profit RUB 47 billion. However, it booked a pre-tax loss of RUB 26 billion, compared with a pre-tax profit of RUB 12 billion in 2022.

The Final Exit

The Carlsberg Group has concluded its divestment from Russia by finalizing the sale of its shares in Baltika Breweries to VG Invest, a local firm managed by two senior employees of the brewery.

Cash Consideration: Carlsberg will receive USD 320 million from the transaction.

The rock bottom transaction price reflects Russia's tightened rules for foreign exits. Per reports, Russia now requires from a seller a significant discount of 60 percent and an "exit tax" of 35 percent. Carlsberg's net assets in Russia were valued by independent Russian analysts at a minimum of USD 5 billion in 2024, indicating a steep markdown.

The mathematics of destruction: Carlsberg received approximately $320 million for assets worth an estimated $5 billion—a 94% discount to fair value. The Russian state had effectively expropriated one of Europe's most successful foreign investments in the country.

"Since the announcement of our intention to leave Russia in 2022, we have exhausted all options to find a way to achieve a full exit from Russia while protecting our employees, our assets and the value of the Carlsberg business," Aarup-Andersen said. He said the sale would settle "numerous lawsuits" and intellectual property rights issues. "Considering the circumstances, we believe it is the best achievable outcome for our employees, shareholders and the continued business."

Disposal of the Russian business, completed on 4 December.

For investors, the Russian saga offers sobering lessons about geopolitical risk. A business that contributed materially to Carlsberg's profits for two decades vanished in months, with minimal recovery. The foundation ownership structure, often criticized for reducing shareholder returns, may have provided stability through the crisis—patient capital that could absorb writedowns without facing activist pressure to pursue value-destroying panic responses.

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VIII. Inflection Point #3: The Britvic Acquisition & Beyond Beer Strategy (2024-2025)

Strategic Pivot

After two failed attempts, Carlsberg announced an agreement to acquire Britvic in July last year for £3.3bn ($4.23bn).

Acquisition of Britvic plc, completed on 16 January 2025.

Carlsberg Britvic's strong national footprint brings together CMBC's breweries and leading in-house secondary logistics operation – with 15 depots servicing customers across the UK – with the dynamic packaging and production capabilities of Britvic. The business is now the largest multi-beverage supplier in the UK, making the UK Carlsberg Group's largest market by revenue in the world.

The strategic rationale reflects broader industry trends. Beer consumption in developed markets has plateaued or declined, while soft drinks—particularly premium, functional, and low-sugar options—continue growing. By combining beer and soft drinks under one distribution network, Carlsberg gains route-to-market efficiencies that neither business could achieve alone.

The deal creates the largest multi-beverage supplier in the UK. It also helps Carlsberg strengthen its relationship with PepsiCo, seeing Carlsberg Britvic become the largest bottling partner for the American beverage giant in Europe.

Financial Logic

The acquisition is attractive for Carlsberg strategically, operationally and financially. It almost doubles our soft drinks exposure, from 16% of total volumes in 2024 to around 30%.

The cash payment totaled GBP 3.3bn. Synergies of GBP 100m are expected, with margin accretive by 2027. EPS accretive: MSD in 2025, DD in 2026. ROIC > WACC: 2027.

The Danish brewer cited the buyout as positively impacting revenue, which reached DKK24.1b (£2.8b) in Q3, up 18% on the same period in 2024. Expected cost savings from the merger have now risen from £100m to £110m.

Aarup-Andersen said Carlsberg remained confident in the strategic rationale of the Britvic acquisition. "We continue to have strong confidence in the advantages of combining beer and soft drinks and the long-term value creation opportunities offered by the Britvic acquisition."

Additional 2024-2025 Moves

Acquisition of Marston's plc's 40% shareholding in Carlsberg Marston's, completed on 31 July. Gaining full control of the businesses in India and Nepal following completion of the buyout of our partner on 29 November.

The brewer has reached an agreement to purchase the shares from its partner, CSAPL (Singapore) Holdings, for a total of US$744m. The deal will give Carlsberg complete control over its Indian subsidiary, Carlsberg India, and a 99.94% stake in the Nepalese business, Gorkha Brewery.

The India buyout signals growth prioritization. By gaining full ownership, the Copenhagen-headquartered company aims to accelerate investments and capitalise on growth opportunities in India's beer market, which research firm EMR valued last year at INR483.1bn (US$5.76bn), forecasting CAGR growth of 9.9% over the next eight years.

In 2002, embracing China's Develop-the-West Strategy, Carlsberg began its large-scale and continuous investment in China, starting from the western regions. Building on our strongholds markets, Carlsberg China has gradually developed into the fourth largest beer company in China, with 26 breweries in 9 provinces, and a nation-wide sales network.

Chongqing Brewery Company (CBC), Carlsberg's operational arm in China, has initiated trial operations at its latest venture—a newly constructed brewery in Foshan, Guangdong province. The construction of this greenfield brewery, CBC's 27th establishment, began in early 2022, with the aim of meeting the escalating market demand in South China.

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IX. The Foundation Ownership Model: Carlsberg's Unique Structure

How Foundation Ownership Works

The Carlsberg Foundation must hold at least 51% of the votes in Carlsberg A/S. The Foundation currently holds 30% of the capital and 77% of the votes.

The shares in Carlsberg are divided into two classes, where the A-class has twenty votes per share and the B-class has two votes per share.

This dual-class structure enables the foundation to maintain voting control while owning a minority of economic interest. The foundation owns virtually all A-shares (high voting power) plus sufficient B-shares to maintain its ~30% economic stake. Public shareholders own predominantly B-shares—they receive dividends proportional to their economic ownership but have limited influence on major decisions.

This structure stems from the foundation's charter, which mandates maintaining at least 51% of the voting rights to ensure long-term stability and alignment with its philanthropic goals.

Governance & Oversight

The supervisory board of Carlsberg A/S comprises, in addition to two members from the Carlsberg Foundation's board of directors, six independent members with international business and leadership experience from i.a. fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies as well as five members elected by and from among the employees of the Carlsberg Group.

The foundation exercises its engaged ownership with respect for the fact that Carlsberg A/S is a listed company with a considerable number of non-controlling shareholders. The foundation also exercises its engaged ownership with respect for the fact that the management of Carlsberg A/S is the duty of the company's executive committee and supervisory board.

This nuanced governance model balances foundation control with professional management and minority shareholder interests. The foundation doesn't micromanage—it sets strategic direction and ensures alignment with long-term values.

Philanthropic Mission

As the principal shareholder in Carlsberg A/S, the Carlsberg Foundation holds around 76 per cent of the votes and around 29 per cent of the equity. Consequently, each year the Carlsberg Foundation receives almost 30 per cent of the profits from the global brewing operations. Of this, a certain proportion goes to the New Carlsberg Foundation.

In 2024, the Carlsberg Foundation granted funding totalling DKK 956 million.

Nearly one billion Danish kroner annually flows from beer sales to scientific research, arts, and cultural preservation—J.C. Jacobsen's vision of beer funding knowledge, made permanent.

Implications for Investors

Examples include world-class companies such as Bertelsmann, Heineken, Ikea, Robert Bosch, Rolex, the Tata Group, and Carlsberg. The so-called "industrial foundations" that own them are nonprofit institutions which typically combine business ownership and philanthropy, but give priority to the business goal. Contrary to the predictions of agency theory, foundation-owned companies are, on average roughly as profitable as investor- or family-owned companies.

Research on Danish foundation-owned companies suggests they perform comparably to investor-owned peers while exhibiting certain characteristics: longer investment horizons, lower executive turnover, more conservative financial policies, and greater stakeholder orientation. These traits may sacrifice short-term returns for sustainability—a trade-off some investors explicitly seek.

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X. Leadership Under Jacob Aarup-Andersen

A Banking Veteran Takes the Helm

Jacob Aarup-Andersen (born 6 December 1977) is a Danish businessman and CEO of Carlsberg, one of the world's leading brewery groups based in Denmark.

He earned a master's degree in economics from the University of Copenhagen in 2002. From 2002 to 2012, he worked in London for Goldman Sachs, Highbridge Capital and Montrica Investment Management. This was followed by the position as chief portfolio manager at Danske Capital from 2012 to 2014. Aarup-Andersen then became CFO of Danica Pension, a life and pension company, before joining the executive board of Danske Bank as group CFO in 2016. At Danske Bank, in 2018 he moved to the position as head of wealth management and later head of banking.

On 17 October 2018, the Danish financial regulator rejected Aarup-Andersen as the next chief executive (CEO) of Danske Bank (to succeed Thomas Borgen who resigned following a major money laundering scandal), despite him being the board's unanimous choice.

This rejection—stemming from regulatory concerns about succession amid the money laundering scandal rather than personal failings—redirected Aarup-Andersen's career. He became CEO of ISS A/S, the facilities management company, before joining Carlsberg.

Jacob Aarup-Andersen joins Carlsberg from ISS A/S, where he has served as CEO since 2020.

In the fall of 2023, Aarup-Andersen became CEO of the Carlsberg Group, replacing Cees 't Hart.

Leadership Philosophy

"Jacob brings a unique blend of excellent strategic skills, financial acumen and discipline, global operational experience and an engaging and purpose-led leadership style. We're pleased that he'll be leading the next stage of Carlsberg's value-creating growth journey."

Jacob Aarup-Andersen: Carlsberg is 178 years old. Resilience has always been a cornerstone for us. We've learned that, typically, it is not the gradual crises that are the most dangerous, but the unforeseen ones.

"In Carlsberg's case, the war in Ukraine presented one of the most significant crises in our history. Despite the war, we decided to expand our production capacity at the Kyiv brewery by 80 percent, making it one of the largest investments in Ukraine during this period of conflict. This decision was not just about maintaining business continuity; it was about demonstrating that even in the face of extreme adversity, we can move forward and create lasting value."

The Ukraine investment decision—expanding capacity while Russia was seizing Carlsberg's Russian assets—demonstrated a particular brand of strategic thinking: signals matter as much as capital allocation.

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XI. Current State & 2024-2025 Financial Performance

Recent Results

Carlsberg's organic revenue grew by 2.4% with operating profit increasing by 6% despite challenges in key markets like China. The company further divested its Russian business, contributing to a net profit of DKK 9,116 million.

"2024 was a year of major events that will shape the future of Carlsberg. The launch and implementation of our refreshed strategy, Accelerate SAIL, with its well-defined growth levers, the acquisition of Britvic, the buyout of our partner in India and Nepal and the expanded partnership with PepsiCo in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan were important milestones that will enable us to deliver long-term sustainable growth and value creation."

Growth categories: premium beer +2%, alcohol-free brews +6%, Beyond Beer +5% and soft drinks +1%. International brands: Tuborg +5%, Carlsberg +9%, 1664 Blanc +6%.

2025 Performance Through H1

The reported operating profit growth of 15.1% was supported by Britvic. Organic growth was 2.3%, as growth in Asia more than offset lower profits in CEEI and Western Europe, the latter being impacted by the loss of the San Miguel brand.

Premium Carlsberg volumes were up by 16%, with very strong growth seen in many markets, including China, where we launched the biggest brand activation ever during Chinese New Year, reaching 560 million impressions, and continued to see growth in the low twenties in Q2. Strong growth in India was mainly driven by Carlsberg Elephant.

Geographic Performance

India emerged as a growth driver in 2025: Discussing its regional performance across its markets in 2024, the company said, "in India, our business had another good year", delivering volume growth of 12%. "We achieved growth in most states, supported by good progress for our two largest products – Tuborg Strong and Carlsberg Elephant."

Carlsberg India became the #3 player in the Indian beer market within 6 years of operations and continues to hold the position to date. To add to this, Tuborg is the #2 beer brand and the #1 international beer brand in the country.

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XII. Competitive Landscape & Industry Analysis

Global Beer Industry Structure

In 2024, AB InBev's global market share was approximately 25%, while Heineken held around 12% and Carlsberg about 8%.

In 2023, Anheuser-Busch InBev had the largest beer market share in the world, controlling over a quarter of beer volume sales. Second and third placers, Heineken and China Resources Snow Breweries accounted for 12.9 and 5.9 percent of the beer market share, respectively.

Carlsberg is currently the sixth largest brewery in the world based on revenue.

Competitive Positioning

From its humble beginnings in Copenhagen in 1847, Carlsberg Group has evolved into a global brewing powerhouse, standing tall as one of AB InBev's most significant competitors. The company's journey is a testament to the power of reinvention and strategic focus in the face of changing market dynamics. Carlsberg's transformation in recent years has been nothing short of remarkable. The company's "SAIL'22" strategy, launched in 2016, marked a turning point, shifting focus towards premium brands, craft beers, and sustainability.

Carlsberg's journey hasn't been without challenges. The company has struggled to compete effectively with AB InBev in Western Europe and North America, markets where AB InBev's economies of scale and established distribution networks give it a significant advantage. Additionally, the premiumization strategy, while aligning with market trends, has sometimes come at the cost of volume sales in more price-sensitive markets. Despite these challenges, Carlsberg's focused strategy and commitment to sustainability position it as a strong competitor to AB InBev.

Porter's Five Forces Analysis

1. Threat of New Entrants: LOW
2. Massive capital requirements for brewing, distribution, and marketing create near-insurmountable barriers
3. Established relationships with retailers and on-premise venues difficult to replicate
4. Regulatory complexity across geographies favors incumbents

5. Craft beer disruption created niche entrants, but major players have responded through acquisitions (Brooklyn by Carlsberg, Goose Island by AB InBev)

6. Supplier Power: MODERATE

7. Commodity inputs (barley, hops, aluminum) have multiple global sources
8. Approximately 25% of COGS are raw materials, such as malt, un-malted barley, wheat, rice, sugar, hops. The largest raw material is malt, accounting for approximately 45% of raw materials costs.
9. Packaging costs (aluminum, glass) subject to commodity cycles

10. Agricultural inputs vulnerable to climate disruption

11. Buyer Power: HIGH

12. Retail consolidation globally has increased buyer power
13. On-premise (bars, restaurants) fragmented but declining in importance
14. Consumer brand loyalty exists but is eroding among younger demographics

15. Price sensitivity varies significantly by market segment

16. Threat of Substitutes: MODERATE-HIGH

17. Wine, spirits, cannabis (where legal), and non-alcoholic beverages all compete for occasions
18. Health consciousness driving some consumers away from alcohol entirely
19. Ready-to-drink cocktails and hard seltzers capturing share from traditional beer

20. Non-alcoholic beer category growing but still small

21. Competitive Rivalry: HIGH

22. Mature markets with excess capacity drive intense price competition
23. Marketing spend requirements are substantial—industry essentially taxes itself through promotional activity
24. Global consolidation has reduced number of major players but intensified their competition
25. Geographic strongholds create regional profit pools that competitors target

Hamilton Helmer's 7 Powers Analysis

1. Scale Economies: Carlsberg possesses meaningful scale advantages in production, distribution, and procurement, though trails AB InBev and Heineken globally. Regional leadership (Nordic countries, parts of Asia) provides local scale benefits.

2. Network Effects: Limited. Beer doesn't exhibit network effects—your consumption doesn't improve if others consume.

3. Counter-Positioning: The foundation ownership model creates potential counter-positioning. Competitors structured to maximize quarterly returns cannot easily replicate Carlsberg's 50-year investment horizons without fundamental governance restructuring. However, it's unclear this creates sustainable advantage.

4. Switching Costs: Low for consumers (minimal cost to try different beers), moderate for retail/on-premise (space constraints, supplier relationships, promotional programs create some friction).

5. Brand: CARLSBERG'S STRONGEST POWER. Premium international brands (Carlsberg, Tuborg, Kronenbourg 1664, Grimbergen) command price premiums. Local power brands (Wusu in China, Baltika formerly in Russia) deliver regional dominance. Brand development requires decades of investment and consistent quality—difficult to replicate quickly.

6. Cornered Resource: The Carlsberg Research Laboratory represents unique institutional capability. "The Laboratory is renowned for some of the most extraordinary inventions of the past century, ranging from Professor Dr. Emil Chr. Hansen's method of purifying yeast to the invention of the pH scale, the concept of protein structures and the characterization of enzymes." However, most brewing innovation is now replicable.

7. Process Power: Strong operational capabilities in brewing, logistics, and route-to-market, but not clearly superior to major competitors.

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XIII. Bull & Bear Cases

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The Bull Case

Premiumization trajectory accelerates: As emerging market middle classes expand, premium beer consumption grows disproportionately. Carlsberg's brand portfolio positions it to capture this upgrade. India alone offers decades of volume and value growth as per-capita beer consumption converges toward global averages.

Britvic integration succeeds: The soft drinks acquisition diversifies revenue away from secular beer volume decline in developed markets. Combined beer-soft drinks distribution creates cost synergies and customer service advantages that pure-play competitors cannot match. Expected cost savings from the merger have now risen from £100m to £110m.

Foundation ownership as asset: Long-term orientation enables strategic patience that public company competitors lack. The ability to invest through cycles, accept near-term dilution for long-term positioning, and resist activist pressure provides competitive advantage in industry consolidation.

China execution: In 2021, our growth rate of sales volume is three times higher than of China beer industry as a whole. Carlsberg's unconventional "Go West" strategy built defensible positions in inland China before pivoting eastward. Continued premiumization and distribution expansion could drive sustained above-market growth.

ESG leadership: Carlsberg's sustainability programs and foundation structure appeal to ESG-focused investors and consumers. Regulatory trends globally favor low-carbon, responsible businesses.

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The Bear Case

Structural volume decline: Beer consumption per capita is declining in developed markets as health consciousness, demographics, and cannabis legalization (where applicable) reduce demand. Even premiumization cannot fully offset volume pressure.

Integration risk: Britvic integration requires combining different cultures, systems, and processes. Synergy projections may prove optimistic; integration distractions could impair both businesses during the transition.

Emerging market volatility: India's regulatory complexity, China's economic uncertainties, and geopolitical risks remain material. The Russian experience demonstrated how quickly emerging market positions can be destroyed.

Foundation governance constraints: While often beneficial, foundation ownership may prevent value-maximizing decisions. A pure investor-owned company might merge with a competitor, accept a takeover premium, or restructure more aggressively. These options are effectively foreclosed.

Competitive intensity: AB InBev possesses superior scale globally and can outspend Carlsberg in marketing, acquisitions, and price competition. Heineken similarly outscales Carlsberg in key markets.

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XIV. Key Performance Indicators to Monitor

For investors following Carlsberg, three metrics warrant particular attention:

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1. Premium Brand Volume Growth (%)

Premium brands drive margin expansion. Carlsberg's strategy depends on shifting mix from mainstream to premium products. International brands: Tuborg +5%, Carlsberg +9%, 1664 Blanc +6%. Sustained mid-single-digit or higher premium volume growth validates the strategy; deceleration signals pricing limits or competitive pressure.

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2. Operating Margin (%)

As Britvic integrates and synergies realize, operating margins should expand toward the company's targets. Net interest-bearing debt/EBITDA was 1.73x (2023: 1.47x). The company has guided for Britvic to become margin accretive by 2027. Margin trajectory will indicate whether synergy assumptions prove realistic or optimistic.

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3. Asia Organic Revenue Growth (%)

Asia—particularly China and India—represents Carlsberg's highest-growth opportunity. Premium Carlsberg volumes were up by 16% in China. India delivered volume growth of 12% in 2024. Sustained high-single-digit or better organic revenue growth in Asia validates the geographic strategy; softness would signal execution issues or market challenges.

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XV. Risks & Regulatory Considerations

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Geopolitical Risk

The Russian exit demonstrated that even decade-long market positions can be destroyed by political developments beyond management's control. While Carlsberg has diversified its geographic exposure, emerging market investments inherently carry political risk.

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Regulatory Environment

Alcohol faces increasing regulatory scrutiny globally. Advertising restrictions, minimum unit pricing, health warnings, and taxation all present margin and volume headwinds. The soft drinks portfolio (Britvic) also faces sugar taxes and reformulation pressures in various markets.

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Currency Exposure

Operating across 140+ markets creates significant currency translation exposure. DKK (Danish Krone) reporting means non-DKK earnings fluctuate with exchange rates. Management hedges transactional exposures but cannot fully eliminate translation effects.

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Accounting Considerations

• Britvic purchase price allocation: The acquisition completed in January 2025; final PPA will significantly impact intangible asset balances and future amortization
• Goodwill impairment risk: Substantial goodwill from historical acquisitions requires ongoing impairment testing
• Pension obligations: Defined benefit plans create liability volatility with interest rate movements

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XVI. Conclusion

Carlsberg's 178-year journey from a Copenhagen hillside to global beverage company encapsulates both the opportunities and challenges of patient, foundation-backed capitalism. J.C. Jacobsen's vision of science-driven quality and open innovation created competitive advantages that lasted generations. His distrust of his own son created governance structures that endure to this day.

The Russian saga represents the company's greatest value destruction—billions lost to political forces beyond management's control. Yet the foundation structure provided stability through the crisis, allowing management to absorb writedowns and exit deliberately rather than panic-selling at any price.

The Britvic acquisition signals strategic evolution. Beer may remain core, but the future Carlsberg will increasingly derive revenues from soft drinks, positioning itself as a total beverage company competing across categories for consumer occasions.

For long-term investors, Carlsberg offers exposure to emerging market growth (India, China), defensive premium brands, and unique governance that prioritizes sustainability over quarterly optimization. The foundation ownership creates both constraints and advantages—a trade-off that suits some investor profiles better than others.

The company that invented pure yeast culture and gave it away freely continues operating under that same ethos: long-term value creation, shared with stakeholders beyond just shareholders. Whether this model can compete against more aggressively capitalized competitors remains the central question for Carlsberg's next century.

As J.C. Jacobsen wrote in the Carlsberg Laboratory's founding mission: knowledge discovered here could never be kept secret—it must be shared with the world. Nearly 150 years later, a yeast strain named Saccharomyces carlsbergensis remains the ancestor of most lager beers consumed globally. The founder's legacy lives in every pint poured worldwide—regardless of brand.

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